Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -17.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | KSU +1200 BAY -2400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +31 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | BAY -20.9 (-10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (+16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -12.2 (-18.8) | 148.0 (+21.0) | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -12.2 (-18.8) | 149.8 (+19.2) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -17.8 (-13.2) | 149.5 (+19.5) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -15.9 (-15.1) | 152.1 (+16.9) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | KSU 90 – 74 BAY |
| Mar 12, 2025 | BAY 70 – 56 KSU |
| Jan 23, 2025 | BAY 70 – 62 KSU |
| Jan 17, 2024 | KSU 68 – 64 BAY |
| Feb 22, 2023 | KSU 75 – 65 BAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KSU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-20 | 28-2 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 13-1 |
| Home | 6-12 | 11-0 |
| Away | 2-7 | 7-1 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W6 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.6 | 82.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 65.5 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#223) | 21.7 (#1) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#227) | 3.48 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.22 (#257) | 5.76 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#181) | 0.710 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KSU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 50.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 46.8% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 14.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 59.1% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 41.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 27.1% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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