Betting Lines
| Spread | NIA -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Over |
| Money | NIA -220 FAIR +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIA +20 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | NIA -14.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 116.2 (+25.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIA -8.5 (+11.5) | 127.6 (+14.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIA -8.4 (+11.6) | 132.3 (+9.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIA -8.9 (+11.1) | 128.7 (+13.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NIA -8.9 (+11.1) | 126.4 (+15.6) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | FAIR 62 – 61 NIA |
| Jan 4, 2026 | FAIR 83 – 75 NIA |
| Jan 17, 2025 | FAIR 70 – 66 NIA |
| Feb 17, 2024 | NIA 65 – 63 FAIR |
| Jan 13, 2024 | NIA 96 – 72 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIA | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-11 | 10-17 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 5-3 | 4-8 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 61.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#236) | -13.7 (#310) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#242) | -2.08 (#285) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#212) | -2.39 (#264) |
| RPI | 0.385 (#280) | 0.270 (#320) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIA | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.5% | 36.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.1% | 26.3% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.1% | 41.0% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 20.4% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 16.6% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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