Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +27 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | TLSA -13.8 (+13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.1 (-22.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -10.3 (+16.7) | 148.4 (-11.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -12.3 (+14.7) | 149.2 (-12.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -12.4 (+14.6) | 148.7 (-11.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -13.2 (+13.8) | 149.9 (-12.9) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 11, 2021 | TLSA 82 – 75 NWST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-12 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 9-7 |
| Home | 7-5 | 6-4 |
| Away | 4-4 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 81.0 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#183) | -10.9 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.99 (#281) | -4.20 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.74 (#275) | -6.48 (#325) |
| RPI | 0.337 (#300) | 0.339 (#299) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 27.0% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 16.4% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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