I'll write on your tombstone, "I thank you for dinner." "Bungle in the Jungle" - Jethro Tull
← All models

Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →
38–20 on winners spread MAE 9.2 58 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
South Florida @ Memphis +11.2 154.4 80% 74–73 ✗
Wichita State @ Florida Atlantic +13.6 150.3 88% 77–86 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Winthrop +4.6 149.4 71% 82–77 ✗
Towson @ Charleston +6.8 138.1 77% 82–78 ✗
Stony Brook @ Delaware +8.7 142.2 80% 68–71 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Elon -5.5 150.3 30% 82–70 ✓
Northeastern @ North Carolina A&T -5.5 147.3 30% 65–72 ✗
Monmouth @ Drexel +7.6 133.8 80% 74–78 ✓
Hampton @ Hofstra +15.9 145.3 90% 77–86 ✓
Campbell @ William & Mary +2.1 136.7 57% 77–64 ✗
Milwaukee @ Northern Kentucky +2.8 154.3 67% 72–90 ✓
Green Bay @ Wright State +4.2 149.1 60% 88–81 ✗
Marshall @ Old Dominion -0.2 148.8 48% 66–91 ✗
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia Southern +0.6 148.7 53% 70–73 ✓
New Hampshire @ NJIT -5.9 148.3 30% 70–62 ✓
Maine @ UMBC -3.1 146.1 34% 65–70 ✗
UMass Lowell @ UAlbany +0.5 150.1 47% 97–76 ✗
Queens University @ Jacksonville +0.7 153.4 60% 77–79 ✓
Kennesaw State @ North Florida -0.1 155.6 50% 75–84 ✗
Florida International @ Liberty +11.6 144.7 85% 69–78 ✓
UT Martin @ Morehead State +10.1 149.9 83% 66–84 ✓
Seattle U @ Stephen F. Austin +2.7 140.6 67% 84–89 ✓
Troy @ South Alabama -1.9 152.4 42% 71–74 ✗
UL Monroe @ James Madison +20.1 142.4 90% 70–89 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ South Dakota -8.1 142.0 20% 73–74 ✗
Oral Roberts @ North Dakota -1.8 150.0 48% 77–87 ✗
Omaha @ South Dakota State +5.2 147.8 69% 87–90 ✓
Denver @ North Dakota State -2.5 164.2 51% 78–70 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Lipscomb +15.2 151.0 89% 96–86 ✗
North Alabama @ Austin Peay +4.6 142.1 66% 80–83 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ UT Arlington +8.6 153.7 82% 73–91 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Tarleton State +5.4 139.6 73% 71–79 ✓
Sacramento State @ Northern Colorado +7.7 150.0 78% 75–77 ✓
Portland State @ Northern Arizona -5.2 141.4 31% 65–84 ✗
Illinois @ Michigan -3.9 151.9 33% 88–73 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Tennessee State +5.7 142.8 72% 53–85 ✓
Little Rock @ Southern Indiana -2.4 148.4 35% 77–75 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Lindenwood -4.7 133.5 32% 78–59 ✓
Utah Tech @ Southern Utah +2.1 153.5 63% 65–75 ✓
Oregon State @ Utah +16.0 150.7 86% 47–74 ✓
Washington @ California -3.3 155.6 38% 77–75 ✓
Utah Valley @ Grand Canyon +13.5 139.8 87% 65–78 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ UTEP +4.2 125.7 67% 59–73 ✓
Western Kentucky @ New Mexico State -2.5 141.9 41% 70–72 ✗
Idaho @ Idaho State +3.2 136.8 61% 59–64 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Weber State +5.2 148.0 59% 80–78 ✗
Santa Clara @ Pacific -14.4 143.2 15% 88–69 ✓
Gonzaga @ Pepperdine -8.9 150.9 21% 86–61 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Northridge +5.2 149.5 70% 97–69 ✗
Hawai'i @ Long Beach State +2.7 144.9 59% 71–79 ✓
UC Riverside @ Cal State Bakersfield -0.1 136.7 46% 56–80 ✗
UC Davis @ Cal State Fullerton -2.3 136.0 35% 67–65 ✓
UC San Diego @ UC Irvine +6.9 138.9 71% 65–76 ✓
Oregon @ Colorado +4.7 146.9 67% 70–86 ✓
Washington State @ Stanford +0.8 147.2 52% 89–75 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ San Francisco +13.1 139.5 88% 74–90 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Stonehill -0.7 144.0 39% 76–69 ✓
Georgetown @ Xavier +13.3 142.7 88% 91–92 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.