If I had my time again / I would do it all the same. "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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29–14 on winners spread MAE 8.8 43 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Creighton @ UConn +4.8 143.6 73% 48–62 ✓
Mississippi State @ Kentucky +5.7 154.7 76% 77–90 ✓
Ole Miss @ LSU +1.8 149.2 64% 80–89 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Virginia +1.8 126.0 58% 57–65 ✓
Florida State @ Miami +6.9 154.0 73% 84–75 ✗
North Texas @ East Carolina -6.1 131.5 23% 60–59 ✓
Longwood @ South Carolina Upstate -6.4 136.4 27% 71–73 ✗
High Point @ Presbyterian -7.3 152.8 26% 86–83 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Radford +5.6 146.0 72% 74–68 ✗
Nebraska @ Rutgers -0.2 136.3 44% 82–87 ✗
Lafayette @ Holy Cross -3.3 129.6 32% 72–68 ✓
Lehigh @ Navy +2.8 142.2 60% 69–71 ✓
Davidson @ Fordham +0.6 142.9 49% 79–69 ✗
Massachusetts @ Loyola Chicago +1.1 142.5 55% 78–79 ✓
Rhode Island @ St. Bonaventure +7.8 145.7 77% 64–99 ✓
Bucknell @ Boston University +3.8 130.4 63% 73–57 ✗
East Tennessee State @ Wofford +2.7 148.2 66% 73–75 ✓
The Citadel @ UNC Greensboro +6.2 134.0 75% 67–73 ✓
Chattanooga @ Mercer +0.4 143.0 52% 74–60 ✗
Youngstown State @ Oakland +4.2 150.2 72% 67–70 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Purdue Fort Wayne +19.6 151.1 90% 85–79 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Robert Morris +11.4 143.3 88% 99–102 ✓
West Virginia @ Oklahoma +14.4 145.2 88% 63–77 ✓
UCF @ Texas +5.0 136.7 68% 77–71 ✗
Tulane @ UAB -2.2 162.5 48% 69–83 ✗
UTSA @ Tulsa +6.1 152.1 77% 78–107 ✓
Murray State @ UIC +0.9 136.0 52% 73–58 ✗
Bradley @ Southern Illinois +1.5 136.0 39% 70–69 ✗
Drake @ Illinois State -9.0 137.2 20% 77–56 ✓
Valparaiso @ Evansville +5.7 138.9 70% 75–78 ✓
Louisiana @ Texas State -0.4 136.8 43% 86–68 ✓
Arkansas State @ Southern Miss +0.5 149.4 54% 66–69 ✓
Louisville @ North Carolina +22.2 154.2 91% 70–86 ✓
Texas Tech @ Houston +14.0 129.2 85% 54–77 ✓
Auburn @ Vanderbilt -14.4 145.1 13% 80–65 ✓
UCLA @ Arizona State +5.3 131.2 64% 68–66 ✗
Northern Iowa @ Belmont +1.2 148.1 50% 83–72 ✗
Maryland @ Northwestern +3.5 133.7 66% 69–72 ✓
Providence @ DePaul -13.0 139.2 17% 100–62 ✓
USC @ Arizona +17.8 160.2 90% 67–82 ✓
Nevada @ San Diego State +5.9 139.5 76% 59–71 ✓
Vermont @ Binghamton -5.3 140.2 31% 82–62 ✓
Minnesota @ Michigan State +11.2 142.8 85% 66–76 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.