Betting Lines
| Spread | FOR -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | FOR -125 DAV +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAV +10 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | FOR -1.9 (-11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (+4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FOR -1.7 (-11.7) | 141.6 (+6.4) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FOR -0.9 (-10.9) | 141.2 (+6.8) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FOR -0.6 (-10.6) | 142.9 (+5.1) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FOR -0.3 (-10.3) | 142.7 (+5.3) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | FOR 63 – 59 DAV |
| Jan 22, 2026 | DAV 68 – 63 FOR |
| Feb 22, 2025 | DAV 80 – 69 FOR |
| Jan 11, 2025 | DAV 74 – 64 FOR |
| Mar 12, 2024 | FOR 71 – 63 DAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 5-13 |
| Home | 6-11 | 9-7 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#172) | 1.5 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#214) | 0.60 (#128) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#220) | 0.76 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#202) | 0.530 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.9% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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