See my tailor, he's called Simon, I know it's going to fit. "Sex & Drugs & Rock & Roll" - Ian Dury
Mercer Bears
60 – 74
FINAL Conference
Chattanooga Mocs
Southern Conference · Hawkins Arena · January 18, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread UTC -2.5 Away covered
O/U 140.5 Under
Money MER +140 / UTC -125
Model Predictions
Spread Total MER win
Actual UTC +14 134 Lost
Massey MER -1.3 (-15.3) — —
Massey Totals — 138.6 (-4.6) —
Bradley-Terry — — 65% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 59% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ UTC -0.1 (-13.9) 143.2 (-9.2) 46% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML MER -0.5 (-14.5) 141.6 (-7.6) 55% ✗
Baseline ML MER -0.4 (-14.4) 143.0 (-9.0) 52% ✗
Baseline Plus ML MER -0.6 (-14.6) 143.3 (-9.3) 51% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 20, 2026 UTC 94 – 90 MER
Feb 6, 2026 UTC 79 – 75 MER
Mar 8, 2025 UTC 76 – 61 MER
Feb 1, 2025 UTC 93 – 84 MER
Jan 1, 2025 MER 99 – 94 UTC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MER UTC
Overall 16-17 21-12
Conference 8-10 12-6
Home 10-6 12-4
Away 4-9 8-7
Neutral 2-2 1-1
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 70.4 76.8
Avg Pts Against 72.5 73.1
Massey -4.1 (#245) -1.5 (#192)
Bradley-Terry -0.56 (#231) -0.46 (#221)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.04 (#253) -0.64 (#226)
RPI 0.465 (#237) 0.461 (#246)
Shooting & Four Factors MER UTC
FG% 43.6% 43.9%
3PT% 35.5% 33.5%
REB / G 33.6 37.2
OREB / G 10.4 9.6
AST / TO 1.16 1.11
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.3% 52.6%
TOV% 17.3% 17.5%
ORB% 28.5% 27.5%
FT Rate 17.3% 22.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.5% 50.3%
Opp TOV% 19.0% 15.4%
DRB% 70.3% 72.6%
Opp FT Rate 28.8% 19.1%

Game Analysis

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