Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | MER +140 UTC -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +14 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | MER -1.3 (-15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (-4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -0.1 (-13.9) | 143.2 (-9.2) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -0.5 (-14.5) | 141.6 (-7.6) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MER -0.4 (-14.4) | 143.0 (-9.0) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -0.6 (-14.6) | 143.3 (-9.3) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | UTC 94 – 90 MER |
| Feb 6, 2026 | UTC 79 – 75 MER |
| Mar 8, 2025 | UTC 76 – 61 MER |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UTC 93 – 84 MER |
| Jan 1, 2025 | MER 99 – 94 UTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-6 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-9 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 73.1 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#245) | -1.5 (#192) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#231) | -0.46 (#221) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#253) | -0.64 (#226) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#237) | 0.461 (#246) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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