Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | CONN -275 CREI +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +14 | 110 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -3.4 (+10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (-36.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -5.4 (+8.6) | 138.2 (-28.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -4.4 (+9.6) | 142.5 (-32.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -4.8 (+9.2) | 143.6 (-33.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -6.2 (+7.8) | 141.6 (-31.6) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | CREI 91 – 84 CONN |
| Feb 1, 2026 | CONN 85 – 58 CREI |
| Mar 15, 2025 | CREI 71 – 62 CONN |
| Feb 12, 2025 | CONN 70 – 66 CREI |
| Jan 18, 2025 | CREI 68 – 63 CONN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 37-3 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 14-6 |
| Home | 17-0 | 14-2 |
| Away | 8-3 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 12-0 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W13 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.4 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 16.4 (#13) | 16.9 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.42 (#3) | 2.06 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.24 (#3) | 2.72 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#18) | 0.597 (#36) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.8% | 49.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.73 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.4% | 57.8% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 37.5% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 11.4% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 76.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 10.4% |
Game Analysis
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