I had 'em all out there steppin' and fetchin' like their heads were on fire and their asses was catchin'. "The Ballad of Uneasy Rider" - Charlie Daniels
Patriot League · Hart Center Arena · January 18, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread LAF -3.0 Away covered
O/U 129.5 Over
Money HC +130 / LAF -155
Model Predictions
Spread Total HC win
Actual LAF +4 140 Lost
Massey LAF -2.4 (-1.6) — —
Massey Totals — 129.1 (+10.9) —
Bradley-Terry — — 34% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 21% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ LAF -4.3 (+0.3) 131.4 (+8.6) 33% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML LAF -3.6 (-0.4) 129.0 (+11.0) 35% ✓
Baseline ML LAF -3.3 (-0.7) 129.6 (+10.4) 32% ✓
Baseline Plus ML LAF -3.3 (-0.7) 130.7 (+9.3) 30% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 4, 2026 HC 82 – 77 LAF
Feb 18, 2026 LAF 86 – 83 HC
Jan 17, 2026 LAF 74 – 55 HC
Mar 5, 2025 LAF 69 – 68 HC
Feb 19, 2025 HC 74 – 69 LAF

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings HC LAF
Overall 10-23 11-21
Conference 6-12 10-8
Home 5-8 5-10
Away 4-14 6-9
Neutral 1-1 0-2
Last 5 1-4 4-1
Streak L1 L5
Avg Pts For 65.8 62.6
Avg Pts Against 75.1 67.8
Massey -14.5 (#348) -8.3 (#304)
Bradley-Terry -2.58 (#344) -1.19 (#280)
W. Bradley-Terry -3.60 (#350) -1.51 (#288)
RPI 0.376 (#348) 0.438 (#283)
Shooting & Four Factors HC LAF
FG% 42.6% 39.0%
3PT% 32.9% 27.4%
REB / G 32.2 33.5
OREB / G 8.8 8.6
AST / TO 0.91 0.98
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.9% 44.6%
TOV% 18.2% 19.2%
ORB% 25.1% 23.8%
FT Rate 14.8% 16.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.9% 48.3%
Opp TOV% 12.6% 17.7%
DRB% 68.9% 69.9%
Opp FT Rate 22.7% 22.4%

Game Analysis

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