Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | HC +130 LAF -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAF +4 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | LAF -2.4 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.1 (+10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -4.3 (+0.3) | 131.4 (+8.6) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAF -3.6 (-0.4) | 129.0 (+11.0) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -3.3 (-0.7) | 129.6 (+10.4) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -3.3 (-0.7) | 130.7 (+9.3) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | HC 82 – 77 LAF |
| Feb 18, 2026 | LAF 86 – 83 HC |
| Jan 17, 2026 | LAF 74 – 55 HC |
| Mar 5, 2025 | LAF 69 – 68 HC |
| Feb 19, 2025 | HC 74 – 69 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-23 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 5-8 | 5-10 |
| Away | 4-14 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 62.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -14.5 (#348) | -8.3 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.58 (#344) | -1.19 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.60 (#350) | -1.51 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.376 (#348) | 0.438 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 27.4% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 44.6% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 14.8% | 16.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.6% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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