Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | HOU -1200 TTU +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +23 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -16.1 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.4 (+5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -13.2 (+9.8) | 129.1 (+1.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -12.6 (+10.4) | 130.3 (+0.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -14.0 (+9.0) | 129.2 (+1.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -14.5 (+8.5) | 129.6 (+1.4) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | TTU 90 – 86 HOU |
| Jan 7, 2026 | HOU 69 – 65 TTU |
| Feb 25, 2025 | HOU 69 – 61 TTU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | TTU 82 – 81 HOU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | HOU 82 – 59 TTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-5 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 11-7 |
| Home | 17-0 | 15-2 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.6 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 23.9 (#2) | 11.7 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.99 (#10) | 2.23 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.31 (#2) | 2.52 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.632 (#15) | 0.597 (#37) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 15.2 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 40.9% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.8% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.7% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 15.9% |
Game Analysis
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