Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | TTU +170 HOU -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +8 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | HOU -1.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.4 (-5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -0.2 (-8.2) | 133.8 (-3.8) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -0.4 (-8.4) | 135.5 (-5.5) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -1.1 (-9.1) | 136.8 (-6.8) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -0.0 (-8.0) | 136.4 (-6.4) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | TTU 90 – 86 HOU |
| Jan 7, 2026 | HOU 69 – 65 TTU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | TTU 82 – 81 HOU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | HOU 82 – 59 TTU |
| Jan 18, 2024 | HOU 77 – 54 TTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TTU | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 35-5 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 19-1 |
| Home | 15-3 | 16-1 |
| Away | 8-2 | 10-0 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 9-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 58.6 |
| Massey | 20.2 (#8) | 24.8 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.70 (#25) | 3.58 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.64 (#19) | 4.71 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#32) | 0.644 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TTU | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 37.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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