Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | TEX -450 UCF +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +6 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | TEX -5.3 (-11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.4 (+9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -5.1 (-11.1) | 138.6 (+9.4) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -4.6 (-10.6) | 136.6 (+11.4) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -5.0 (-11.0) | 136.7 (+11.3) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -4.3 (-10.3) | 139.7 (+8.3) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-4 | 11-8 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.9 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#51) | 8.3 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.57 (#61) | 1.25 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#72) | 1.50 (#89) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#84) | 0.550 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 23.1% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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