Just tell me where it hurts and I'll tell you who to call. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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39–20 on winners spread MAE 8.6 59 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Washington State @ UCLA +11.4 130.6 88% 52–76 ✓
Army @ Bucknell -0.6 142.8 46% 67–73 ✗
Drake @ Valparaiso -7.3 142.8 23% 85–82 ✓
Northwestern State @ Lamar -10.3 143.5 16% 72–68 ✓
Charleston Southern @ High Point +0.2 152.9 50% 73–81 ✓
Central Michigan @ Toledo +13.2 154.7 88% 59–84 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Old Dominion +4.8 132.0 69% 58–64 ✓
Texas State @ Troy +5.1 135.3 72% 64–68 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Youngstown State +6.2 143.7 72% 56–74 ✓
Wright State @ Robert Morris +1.0 145.6 56% 82–67 ✗
UC Irvine @ Long Beach State -1.0 152.6 47% 88–93 ✗
North Alabama @ Florida Gulf Coast +7.6 148.1 78% 87–85 ✗
Kennesaw State @ Eastern Kentucky +0.2 148.9 52% 74–77 ✓
Villanova @ Creighton +10.6 138.7 86% 61–66 ✓
Oklahoma @ West Virginia +5.8 140.6 76% 61–93 ✓
North Texas @ Rice -2.5 132.2 29% 74–64 ✓
Nicholls @ Houston Christian -6.4 157.2 25% 92–91 ✓
Dayton @ St. Bonaventure -3.4 131.4 33% 59–68 ✗
Utah State @ Colorado State -4.3 152.4 32% 88–79 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Grand Canyon +3.3 145.0 66% 83–86 ✓
Portland @ Pepperdine -0.6 156.7 47% 93–94 ✗
Marshall @ Louisiana +2.0 156.3 63% 67–77 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Kansas City -13.3 144.6 14% 85–57 ✓
Weber State @ Idaho State +0.1 136.7 46% 72–71 ✗
Georgia @ Texas A&M +9.7 143.2 83% 57–82 ✓
Florida @ Kentucky +3.9 137.6 75% 67–72 ✓
Maryland @ Minnesota -9.8 132.1 17% 81–46 ✓
Seattle U @ New Mexico State -0.7 143.2 46% 75–82 ✗
Southern Utah @ Utah Tech -2.2 159.8 43% 79–86 ✗
Pacific @ BYU +10.9 153.8 85% 66–81 ✓
UC Riverside @ Cal State Fullerton +2.8 137.9 67% 58–64 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Montana +5.8 139.2 75% 66–67 ✓
Oregon State @ Arizona +17.6 142.2 89% 52–84 ✓
Washington @ USC +9.3 144.9 84% 74–80 ✓
Oregon @ Arizona State +1.9 138.9 65% 75–70 ✗
Wyoming @ San José State +6.1 140.5 74% 64–84 ✓
Abilene Christian @ California Baptist +4.9 139.8 71% 87–71 ✗
Santa Clara @ San Francisco +3.0 152.3 64% 84–70 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ San Diego -5.0 157.6 35% 79–87 ✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC San Diego +3.0 133.2 55% 75–69 ✗
Hawai'i @ Cal Poly -6.0 125.6 23% 69–56 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Northridge -9.7 131.5 19% 67–72 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Portland State -2.3 153.0 35% 98–88 ✓
Gonzaga @ Saint Mary's +4.6 141.6 73% 70–78 ✓
DePaul @ Seton Hall +12.4 140.0 87% 64–69 ✓
La Salle @ Saint Joseph's +5.6 143.1 76% 73–65 ✗
Fordham @ Richmond +1.2 137.8 59% 58–68 ✓
Ohio State @ Michigan +0.8 144.7 59% 69–77 ✓
Missouri State @ Southern Illinois +3.6 124.3 67% 53–73 ✓
Niagara @ Siena +6.9 130.8 78% 56–54 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Quinnipiac +11.3 133.9 86% 79–75 ✗
Canisius @ Marist +0.6 134.7 50% 67–75 ✓
Rider @ Manhattan -3.5 142.0 36% 67–56 ✓
Iona @ Fairfield -7.3 134.9 25% 70–61 ✓
Wichita State @ Tulsa -4.4 144.1 34% 86–75 ✓
Penn State @ Nebraska -1.8 134.9 48% 63–72 ✗
Houston @ Temple -11.4 131.0 17% 81–65 ✓
California @ Utah +16.0 132.2 89% 46–61 ✓
Northwestern @ Wisconsin +1.8 127.9 55% 54–52 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.