I remember one night the kid cut off his right arm in a bid to save a bit of power. "So It Goes" - Nick Lowe
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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40–18 on winners spread MAE 11.3 58 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Furman @ Mississippi State +10.4 149.9 81% 66–69 ✓
Villanova @ Creighton -3.9 133.8 40% 59–79 ✗
South Alabama @ Tarleton State -2.8 128.3 50% 52–65 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ UTSA +2.8 153.4 60% 68–50 ✗
San José State @ Portland +1.3 145.7 57% 90–78 ✗
Florida A&M @ Santa Clara +15.6 141.6 87% 66–80 ✓
Wake Forest @ Charlotte -11.2 147.7 17% 82–79 ✓
Cal Poly @ Fresno State +13.7 126.5 86% 48–83 ✓
San Diego State @ Saint Mary's +2.3 123.1 56% 63–53 ✗
North Dakota State @ Pacific +4.1 133.6 66% 73–61 ✗
Purdue @ Butler -16.7 138.8 12% 77–48 ✓
St. John's @ Pittsburgh -4.3 142.1 38% 57–59 ✗
Texas Tech @ Gonzaga +3.2 144.8 69% 55–69 ✓
Hartford @ Central Connecticut -0.0 146.3 46% 65–75 ✗
Alabama A&M @ Indiana State +11.2 141.9 84% 43–67 ✓
Saint Francis @ Illinois +15.0 155.0 88% 48–106 ✓
South Florida @ Florida +13.9 125.4 85% 55–66 ✓
Lamar @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +12.6 144.5 86% 53–57 ✓
Radford @ Davidson +17.1 135.3 87% 54–74 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Delaware State -9.8 138.8 16% 86–53 ✓
Tennessee State @ South Carolina State +1.2 147.9 50% 88–90 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Colorado +10.1 128.7 81% 46–60 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Wright State +2.0 145.6 59% 63–72 ✓
East Tennessee State @ UNC Asheville +0.3 137.9 52% 64–79 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ High Point +5.3 136.5 67% 71–69 ✗
TCU @ Georgetown +0.2 143.7 45% 80–73 ✗
La Salle @ Bucknell +0.6 149.3 53% 70–82 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Virginia +19.6 128.8 89% 49–82 ✓
Bellarmine @ Miami (OH) +11.4 144.7 85% 77–68 ✗
Utah Tech @ North Dakota -2.8 152.1 38% 78–69 ✓
UAlbany @ Niagara +8.9 123.8 77% 58–66 ✓
Austin Peay @ Vanderbilt +12.0 138.6 84% 51–77 ✓
Indiana @ Notre Dame -8.5 139.6 24% 64–56 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Western Illinois +24.7 136.5 91% 54–71 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Bradley +1.3 136.1 59% 73–77 ✓
Louisville @ Western Kentucky +2.6 139.1 61% 72–82 ✓
Southern Miss @ UL Monroe +12.1 144.5 86% 65–74 ✓
Elon @ Duke +29.7 157.7 91% 56–87 ✓
Georgia Tech @ USC +10.2 137.8 80% 53–67 ✓
Marquette @ Xavier +11.7 146.6 86% 71–80 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Nicholls +25.9 151.3 91% 73–104 ✓
Wofford @ Presbyterian -1.7 136.2 47% 76–49 ✓
Morgan State @ Mount St. Mary's +5.4 138.1 73% 60–74 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Washington State +13.1 145.7 87% 56–82 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Marshall +6.6 154.1 68% 75–60 ✗
North Texas @ Wichita State +7.4 124.9 70% 62–52 ✗
Ball State @ Illinois State +5.2 162.4 76% 64–85 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Howard +1.5 148.6 59% 57–79 ✓
Utah @ Missouri -7.8 140.1 29% 75–83 ✗
Providence @ UConn +9.5 141.1 79% 57–53 ✗
West Virginia @ UAB +8.2 135.3 76% 65–59 ✗
Marist @ Boston University +7.4 136.3 76% 84–79 ✗
Buffalo @ Canisius -12.1 150.5 18% 64–65 ✗
North Carolina @ Kentucky +0.1 145.2 52% 69–98 ✓
California Baptist @ Arizona +27.3 153.9 91% 60–84 ✓
South Carolina @ Clemson +8.3 143.7 79% 56–70 ✓
Dayton @ Ole Miss +2.1 131.2 49% 68–76 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Stony Brook +8.9 140.5 79% 63–64 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.