We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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40–7 on winners spread MAE 8.3 47 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Oklahoma State @ Houston +10.3 142.9 82% 61–72 ✓
LSU @ Louisiana Tech -13.2 144.5 16% 66–57 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Eastern Kentucky +6.1 147.6 75% 68–81 ✓
Southern Utah @ Michigan +11.7 144.2 83% 50–87 ✓
George Mason @ Georgia +2.0 141.1 59% 80–67 ✗
Kennesaw State @ Samford +5.9 146.2 74% 84–85 ✓
San Francisco @ Grand Canyon -2.7 136.0 42% 48–49 ✗
Stephen F. Austin @ Kansas +23.8 157.0 91% 72–80 ✓
Hofstra @ Arkansas +3.9 157.6 68% 89–81 ✗
Texas A&M @ Oregon State -6.8 135.8 29% 83–73 ✓
BYU @ Weber State -2.3 147.4 41% 89–71 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Pepperdine +7.9 149.5 80% 77–83 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Missouri State +23.7 148.6 91% 70–106 ✓
Chattanooga @ Murray State +6.1 142.2 73% 76–87 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Alabama +19.7 153.1 89% 59–65 ✓
Auburn @ Saint Louis -1.4 149.2 39% 74–70 ✓
Utah State @ Iowa +0.1 154.7 47% 75–94 ✓
Baylor @ Oregon -6.2 137.1 25% 78–70 ✓
Seattle U @ Washington +1.1 149.9 61% 56–64 ✓
Portland State @ Cal State Northridge +6.4 129.1 68% 66–69 ✓
San Diego @ Northern Arizona -4.2 133.6 38% 69–59 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Nevada +5.7 148.0 73% 63–68 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Iowa State +22.0 134.3 91% 54–77 ✓
Central Michigan @ Detroit Mercy +14.8 143.7 88% 75–89 ✓
Sacred Heart @ UMass Lowell +6.9 142.9 74% 62–70 ✓
UC Irvine @ Duquesne -10.7 131.6 20% 54–76 ✗
Fairfield @ Massachusetts +2.2 155.9 47% 73–77 ✓
Mercer @ Florida Gulf Coast +4.5 149.4 70% 55–67 ✓
Army @ Long Island University +1.1 139.8 56% 65–90 ✓
Air Force @ Arkansas State +2.7 134.6 63% 46–68 ✓
Holy Cross @ Harvard +17.9 145.1 90% 54–62 ✓
Colgate @ Monmouth +13.4 143.1 86% 66–77 ✓
Robert Morris @ Bowling Green +11.5 154.2 84% 74–100 ✓
Northern Illinois @ UIC +8.2 130.2 76% 60–61 ✓
Texas @ Stanford -10.4 134.3 18% 60–53 ✓
UT Martin @ Drake +13.2 147.9 88% 54–80 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Middle Tennessee +7.4 139.8 78% 80–84 ✓
UT Arlington @ Oklahoma +18.8 132.1 89% 50–70 ✓
SMU @ New Mexico +1.9 160.2 55% 90–72 ✗
UC Davis @ Pacific +0.8 135.5 51% 77–67 ✗
Dartmouth @ California +10.3 137.5 83% 55–61 ✓
Old Dominion @ Richmond +11.6 134.5 86% 61–67 ✓
Portland @ Montana State +12.2 146.6 86% 59–61 ✓
Montana @ Santa Clara +12.7 142.4 84% 64–79 ✓
Southern @ Kent State +8.3 136.3 77% 78–76 ✗
Kansas State @ Nebraska -5.8 145.6 28% 67–58 ✓
San Francisco @ Arizona State -1.0 132.2 56% 66–65 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.