Don't talk to me about your big, big heroes "Kelly's Heroes" - Black Grape
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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40–18 on winners spread MAE 9.1 58 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Oregon State @ UCLA +12.4 143.9 86% 52–57 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Cal Poly -0.9 143.2 45% 64–51 ✓
New Mexico @ Fresno State +6.4 128.6 72% 55–65 ✓
Bryant @ Fairleigh Dickinson -9.1 160.5 27% 79–81 ✗
Saint Joseph's @ Duquesne +9.6 146.1 83% 50–67 ✓
Oakland @ Purdue Fort Wayne +1.2 157.3 55% 82–75 ✗
Green Bay @ Cleveland State +5.4 137.9 72% 65–73 ✓
Stetson @ Florida Gulf Coast +0.5 133.5 49% 77–66 ✗
VMI @ UNC Greensboro +6.5 150.1 78% 59–76 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Davis -12.8 142.3 15% 89–86 ✓
Minnesota @ Purdue +3.2 139.4 67% 62–81 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Saint Francis +6.8 147.6 77% 59–62 ✓
Gonzaga @ Pepperdine -17.1 167.6 12% 97–75 ✓
Creighton @ DePaul -8.4 146.3 21% 69–62 ✓
Stanford @ Arizona State -3.5 145.5 37% 75–79 ✗
Manhattan @ Saint Peter's +8.6 124.7 83% 54–68 ✓
North Dakota State @ Kansas City -1.2 127.2 44% 47–49 ✗
Omaha @ South Dakota +13.2 145.7 87% 93–97 ✓
Tarleton State @ Utah Valley +7.2 146.1 70% 70–62 ✗
Western Illinois @ North Dakota +4.5 146.9 60% 99–87 ✗
South Carolina @ Vanderbilt -2.8 151.3 45% 81–93 ✗
Belmont @ Murray State -4.5 151.2 24% 72–71 ✓
Alabama State @ Texas Southern +11.6 133.8 87% 73–80 ✓
UTSA @ UTEP +5.1 149.1 71% 51–69 ✓
New Mexico State @ Grand Canyon +12.7 131.6 86% 53–65 ✓
Utah Tech @ California Baptist +10.0 151.6 83% 79–75 ✗
Wyoming @ San Diego State +17.1 146.4 88% 71–98 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal State Bakersfield +6.9 138.3 76% 73–83 ✓
UC Irvine @ Hawai'i -0.9 133.4 49% 61–62 ✗
Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh +6.2 143.3 73% 84–58 ✗
Tulane @ Temple +7.2 131.7 78% 81–64 ✗
SMU @ Houston +11.3 137.3 82% 48–70 ✓
Michigan State @ Ohio State +10.8 143.9 84% 62–79 ✓
William & Mary @ Towson +0.4 141.2 51% 75–74 ✗
Hofstra @ UNC Wilmington +0.2 145.0 50% 89–83 ✗
Drexel @ James Madison +0.9 139.8 57% 64–73 ✓
New Hampshire @ Binghamton -2.7 136.6 39% 71–65 ✓
UMBC @ NJIT -2.4 135.4 42% 65–69 ✗
Hartford @ Stony Brook +0.2 129.4 50% 49–63 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Mount St. Mary's +4.1 128.4 63% 64–76 ✓
Lehigh @ Bucknell +6.3 146.8 72% 68–92 ✓
Elon @ Delaware +6.6 128.3 75% 70–75 ✓
Sacramento State @ Eastern Washington +6.3 147.3 74% 60–68 ✓
Siena @ Marist -2.1 128.2 38% 63–50 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Missouri State -2.7 138.0 36% 72–46 ✓
Illinois State @ Drake +20.4 143.0 91% 76–78 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ UAB +19.8 131.5 90% 52–63 ✓
St. John's @ Marquette +2.9 149.1 58% 75–73 ✗
Florida A&M @ North Carolina A&T +0.9 143.2 52% 65–67 ✓
Rice @ North Texas +11.9 137.0 83% 53–79 ✓
Valparaiso @ Evansville +0.1 134.8 49% 52–70 ✓
Bradley @ Indiana State +3.2 132.9 66% 57–60 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Saint Francis +6.6 145.2 75% 85–77 ✗
Bryant @ Fairleigh Dickinson -9.2 161.4 22% 84–95 ✗
Sam Houston @ Stephen F. Austin +2.1 153.0 59% 68–78 ✓
Colgate @ Holy Cross -14.4 152.0 15% 78–60 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Southern Illinois +0.0 141.0 49% 68–71 ✓
NC State @ Syracuse +6.3 150.8 75% 73–76 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.