And Harry doesn't mind if he doesn't make the scene. "Sultans of Swing" - Dire Straits
← All models

Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →
42–20 on winners spread MAE 9.1 62 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Memphis @ Florida Atlantic -2.5 172.6 41% 90–62 ✓
Radford @ High Point +7.2 144.7 74% 58–76 ✓
Army @ Colgate +3.7 150.4 63% 59–71 ✓
Boston University @ Lafayette +1.2 131.3 54% 46–60 ✓
Bucknell @ Lehigh +3.2 149.1 61% 64–66 ✓
American University @ Navy -0.5 148.5 48% 58–81 ✗
Northwestern @ Penn State +6.4 145.3 72% 80–84 ✓
Southern Miss @ James Madison +13.4 142.9 89% 72–83 ✓
South Alabama @ Georgia State -5.8 136.1 30% 77–51 ✓
UL Monroe @ Georgia Southern +10.2 147.8 82% 82–90 ✓
Texas State @ Marshall -1.0 141.0 46% 71–77 ✗
Louisiana @ Coastal Carolina +8.9 136.6 79% 71–68 ✗
Arkansas State @ Old Dominion -15.0 151.5 9% 78–59 ✓
Robert Morris @ Detroit Mercy -0.7 142.9 47% 76–78 ✗
Milwaukee @ Oakland -1.9 144.9 43% 49–65 ✗
Green Bay @ Wright State +12.1 160.3 87% 51–74 ✓
Elon @ North Carolina A&T -7.4 152.9 25% 75–67 ✓
Hampton @ Charleston +6.4 146.5 72% 67–94 ✓
William & Mary @ Hofstra +6.7 154.3 73% 74–56 ✗
Towson @ UNC Wilmington +9.6 135.0 81% 65–61 ✗
Delaware @ Northeastern +8.4 156.1 78% 77–80 ✓
Drexel @ Campbell -1.9 132.6 43% 54–57 ✗
Stony Brook @ Monmouth +7.4 146.3 75% 56–78 ✓
Stetson @ Queens University +14.1 149.8 90% 87–96 ✓
Bellarmine @ North Alabama +19.2 156.1 96% 66–82 ✓
Lipscomb @ Jacksonville -3.9 137.4 36% 70–65 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ West Georgia -7.1 134.3 26% 79–68 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Florida International -2.6 146.2 41% 73–69 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Liberty +12.1 142.4 86% 71–70 ✗
Purdue @ Minnesota -7.5 131.6 25% 81–61 ✓
Illinois State @ Murray State +5.4 145.1 69% 74–68 ✗
Idaho State @ Northern Arizona +0.1 141.1 50% 72–67 ✗
Weber State @ Northern Colorado +10.7 154.8 84% 72–89 ✓
UC Irvine @ Cal Poly -7.6 160.4 24% 98–89 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ North Dakota State +6.6 158.5 73% 89–85 ✗
South Dakota @ Kansas City +1.7 161.8 56% 54–68 ✓
Omaha @ North Dakota +3.9 149.1 64% 95–85 ✗
Rutgers @ Indiana +6.3 159.6 72% 74–84 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Central Arkansas -6.7 152.0 27% 89–83 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Tennessee Tech +6.6 145.5 72% 64–68 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Tennessee State -2.1 156.5 42% 67–65 ✓
Little Rock @ UT Martin +3.3 128.1 62% 57–56 ✗
Lindenwood @ Eastern Illinois +5.3 138.3 69% 74–78 ✓
Portland @ Gonzaga +38.1 162.8 100% 50–81 ✓
Montana State @ Idaho -0.4 153.3 49% 64–69 ✗
Montana @ Eastern Washington +1.8 155.2 57% 92–81 ✗
Denver @ South Dakota State +16.7 152.5 94% 70–91 ✓
Western Illinois @ SIU Edwardsville +9.5 129.6 81% 66–77 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ UTEP +1.9 140.5 57% 60–70 ✓
Sam Houston @ New Mexico State +2.0 157.0 57% 71–75 ✓
Maryland @ Washington -11.6 144.6 15% 69–75 ✗
UC Davis @ Cal State Bakersfield +4.7 135.5 67% 64–75 ✓
Illinois @ Oregon +1.4 154.4 55% 109–77 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ Cal State Fullerton -6.5 144.1 28% 95–65 ✓
UC Riverside @ Long Beach State -3.0 136.8 39% 76–60 ✓
Pepperdine @ Saint Mary's +13.8 143.9 89% 41–71 ✓
Santa Clara @ San Diego -12.9 150.1 12% 81–80 ✓
San Francisco @ Pacific -12.3 137.0 13% 89–81 ✓
Oregon State @ Loyola Marymount -6.8 134.7 27% 61–82 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ Hawai'i +0.9 136.4 53% 64–61 ✗
Fairfield @ Merrimack +11.2 136.9 85% 54–67 ✓
Akron @ Bowling Green -3.4 162.3 38% 71–68 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.