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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
7–3 on winners
spread MAE 6.1
10 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bradley
@
Indiana State
|
-4.2 | 165.5 | 35% | 90–89 | ✓ |
The Citadel
@
Samford
|
+24.9 | 158.6 | 99% | 56–86 | ✓ |
Valparaiso
@
Missouri State
|
+3.4 | 151.2 | 62% | 73–72 | ✗ |
Belmont
@
Northern Iowa
|
+10.4 | 160.2 | 83% | 70–76 | ✓ |
Gardner-Webb
@
Charleston Southern
|
-0.5 | 154.0 | 48% | 63–72 | ✗ |
Longwood
@
Presbyterian
|
+0.8 | 145.2 | 53% | 60–68 | ✓ |
Austin Peay
@
North Florida
|
+10.6 | 147.6 | 83% | 97–89 | ✗ |
South Carolina Upstate
@
Winthrop
|
+16.3 | 167.5 | 93% | 76–95 | ✓ |
Loyola Maryland
@
Holy Cross
|
+3.0 | 142.9 | 61% | 72–74 | ✓ |
Troy
@
App State
|
-2.6 | 127.4 | 41% | 69–61 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.