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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–8 on winners
spread MAE 8.3
20 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Mexico
@
Fresno State
|
-11.5 | 165.6 | 15% | 103–89 | ✓ |
Boise State
@
Wyoming
|
-4.4 | 139.4 | 34% | 67–58 | ✓ |
Morehead State
@
Southern Indiana
|
+5.9 | 143.8 | 70% | 70–68 | ✗ |
Utah State
@
Nevada
|
+0.5 | 144.4 | 52% | 69–64 | ✗ |
Miami
@
Boston College
|
-2.1 | 153.5 | 42% | 68–78 | ✗ |
Youngstown State
@
IU Indianapolis
|
-1.8 | 142.1 | 44% | 77–61 | ✓ |
Purdue Fort Wayne
@
Northern Kentucky
|
-1.0 | 147.9 | 46% | 68–69 | ✗ |
UNC Greensboro
@
Wofford
|
+1.8 | 129.6 | 57% | 68–66 | ✗ |
VMI
@
East Tennessee State
|
+14.8 | 145.8 | 91% | 69–84 | ✓ |
Howard
@
Yale
|
+15.9 | 156.0 | 93% | 65–93 | ✓ |
Furman
@
Western Carolina
|
-11.7 | 133.7 | 14% | 90–61 | ✓ |
UConn
@
DePaul
|
-6.0 | 152.6 | 29% | 81–68 | ✓ |
California
@
Pittsburgh
|
+19.9 | 158.2 | 97% | 74–86 | ✓ |
Evansville
@
Southern Illinois
|
+13.0 | 139.4 | 88% | 68–53 | ✗ |
Rice
@
Tulsa
|
-3.5 | 141.7 | 38% | 70–64 | ✓ |
Drake
@
UIC
|
-5.9 | 133.7 | 30% | 70–74 | ✗ |
Chattanooga
@
Mercer
|
+3.4 | 158.4 | 62% | 94–99 | ✓ |
Stanford
@
Clemson
|
+10.4 | 143.4 | 83% | 71–85 | ✓ |
North Carolina
@
Louisville
|
+0.7 | 166.2 | 52% | 70–83 | ✓ |
Villanova
@
Butler
|
+2.6 | 150.9 | 59% | 73–65 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.