The black queen chants the funeral march, the cracked brass bells will ring / To summon back the fire witch to the court of the crimson king "The Court of the Crimson King" - King Crimson
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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39–19 on winners spread MAE 11.9 58 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Furman @ Mississippi State +12.0 149.5 86% 66–69 ✓
Villanova @ Creighton -7.0 130.4 26% 59–79 ✗
South Alabama @ Tarleton State -3.4 121.5 38% 52–65 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ UTSA +0.7 156.4 52% 68–50 ✗
San José State @ Portland +2.1 143.0 58% 90–78 ✗
Florida A&M @ Santa Clara +19.1 139.6 96% 66–80 ✓
Wake Forest @ Charlotte -13.8 151.6 10% 82–79 ✓
Cal Poly @ Fresno State +14.9 115.5 91% 48–83 ✓
San Diego State @ Saint Mary's +3.8 112.9 63% 63–53 ✗
North Dakota State @ Pacific +7.8 126.1 76% 73–61 ✗
Purdue @ Butler -17.6 137.1 6% 77–48 ✓
St. John's @ Pittsburgh -5.0 144.2 33% 57–59 ✗
Texas Tech @ Gonzaga +4.7 148.7 67% 55–69 ✓
Hartford @ Central Connecticut -2.3 146.8 42% 65–75 ✗
Alabama A&M @ Indiana State +14.5 140.4 91% 43–67 ✓
Saint Francis @ Illinois +16.5 153.6 93% 48–106 ✓
South Florida @ Florida +13.6 113.3 89% 55–66 ✓
Lamar @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +14.2 145.8 90% 53–57 ✓
Radford @ Davidson +17.7 129.3 95% 54–74 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Delaware State -12.1 139.6 14% 86–53 ✓
Tennessee State @ South Carolina State +1.4 149.9 55% 88–90 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Colorado +10.0 122.4 82% 46–60 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Wright State +0.6 147.1 52% 63–72 ✓
East Tennessee State @ UNC Asheville -1.3 132.9 45% 64–79 ✗
UNC Wilmington @ High Point +7.8 129.9 76% 71–69 ✗
TCU @ Georgetown -1.6 139.6 44% 80–73 ✓
La Salle @ Bucknell +0.4 151.5 51% 70–82 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Virginia +20.0 118.8 97% 49–82 ✓
Bellarmine @ Miami (OH) +14.3 147.4 90% 77–68 ✗
Utah Tech @ North Dakota -5.5 157.9 31% 78–69 ✓
UAlbany @ Niagara +11.8 115.3 86% 58–66 ✓
Austin Peay @ Vanderbilt +11.9 134.9 86% 51–77 ✓
Indiana @ Notre Dame -9.6 135.9 19% 64–56 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Western Illinois +29.2 131.2 100% 54–71 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Bradley +3.6 132.5 63% 73–77 ✓
Louisville @ Western Kentucky -0.3 135.2 49% 72–82 ✗
Southern Miss @ UL Monroe +13.7 143.8 89% 65–74 ✓
Elon @ Duke +32.7 156.2 100% 56–87 ✓
Georgia Tech @ USC +12.9 138.3 88% 53–67 ✓
Marquette @ Xavier +17.1 147.6 94% 71–80 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Nicholls +28.3 151.4 100% 73–104 ✓
Wofford @ Presbyterian -4.2 132.6 35% 76–49 ✓
Morgan State @ Mount St. Mary's +6.3 138.8 72% 60–74 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Washington State +13.5 145.1 89% 56–82 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Marshall +7.9 157.9 76% 75–60 ✗
North Texas @ Wichita State +5.2 111.3 68% 62–52 ✗
Ball State @ Illinois State +6.5 170.3 72% 64–85 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Howard +1.5 152.2 55% 57–79 ✓
Utah @ Missouri -9.5 136.0 19% 75–83 ✗
Providence @ UConn +12.5 143.9 87% 57–53 ✗
West Virginia @ UAB +9.3 134.0 80% 65–59 ✗
Marist @ Boston University +7.6 133.5 76% 84–79 ✗
Buffalo @ Canisius -16.1 153.9 7% 64–65 ✗
North Carolina @ Kentucky +0.1 148.8 50% 69–98 ✓
California Baptist @ Arizona +32.3 154.7 100% 60–84 ✓
South Carolina @ Clemson +10.0 140.4 82% 56–70 ✓
Dayton @ Ole Miss +0.2 121.8 51% 68–76 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Stony Brook +8.8 139.0 79% 63–64 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.