And I'm telling you son, well, it ain't no fun staring straight down a forty-four. "Gimme Three Steps" - Lynyrd Skynyrd
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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40–7 on winners spread MAE 8.8 47 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Oklahoma State @ Houston +13.9 135.5 90% 61–72 ✓
LSU @ Louisiana Tech -17.1 143.9 6% 66–57 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Eastern Kentucky +9.6 150.3 81% 68–81 ✓
Southern Utah @ Michigan +10.6 141.0 83% 50–87 ✓
George Mason @ Georgia +2.5 138.5 59% 80–67 ✗
Kennesaw State @ Samford +4.9 143.9 67% 84–85 ✓
San Francisco @ Grand Canyon -4.0 132.2 36% 48–49 ✗
Stephen F. Austin @ Kansas +25.8 157.2 99% 72–80 ✓
Hofstra @ Arkansas +3.8 159.5 63% 89–81 ✗
Texas A&M @ Oregon State -5.4 133.2 31% 83–73 ✓
BYU @ Weber State -5.8 142.6 30% 89–71 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Pepperdine +9.5 152.7 81% 77–83 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Missouri State +26.3 146.7 99% 70–106 ✓
Chattanooga @ Murray State +4.3 132.6 65% 76–87 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Alabama +20.8 152.7 97% 59–65 ✓
Auburn @ Saint Louis -4.5 152.0 34% 74–70 ✓
Utah State @ Iowa +2.4 165.1 59% 75–94 ✓
Baylor @ Oregon -11.5 138.3 15% 78–70 ✓
Seattle U @ Washington +2.5 145.1 59% 56–64 ✓
Portland State @ Cal State Northridge +5.3 120.1 69% 66–69 ✓
San Diego @ Northern Arizona -5.7 129.6 30% 69–59 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Nevada +9.1 147.8 80% 63–68 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Iowa State +24.0 129.6 99% 54–77 ✓
Central Michigan @ Detroit Mercy +15.3 145.6 92% 75–89 ✓
Sacred Heart @ UMass Lowell +10.0 141.8 82% 62–70 ✓
UC Irvine @ Duquesne -14.4 127.0 9% 54–76 ✗
Fairfield @ Massachusetts +1.1 162.4 54% 73–77 ✓
Mercer @ Florida Gulf Coast +5.0 149.6 68% 55–67 ✓
Army @ Long Island University -0.3 140.4 49% 65–90 ✗
Air Force @ Arkansas State +2.3 127.9 58% 46–68 ✓
Holy Cross @ Harvard +23.4 144.8 98% 54–62 ✓
Colgate @ Monmouth +12.9 144.6 88% 66–77 ✓
Robert Morris @ Bowling Green +12.7 158.3 88% 74–100 ✓
Northern Illinois @ UIC +11.0 127.2 84% 60–61 ✓
Texas @ Stanford -13.5 130.6 11% 60–53 ✓
UT Martin @ Drake +16.0 147.8 93% 54–80 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Middle Tennessee +8.7 133.1 79% 80–84 ✓
UT Arlington @ Oklahoma +20.6 125.8 97% 50–70 ✓
SMU @ New Mexico +1.9 165.5 57% 90–72 ✗
UC Davis @ Pacific -0.0 132.1 50% 77–67 ✓
Dartmouth @ California +10.1 132.0 82% 55–61 ✓
Old Dominion @ Richmond +13.2 131.3 88% 61–67 ✓
Portland @ Montana State +14.0 147.5 90% 59–61 ✓
Montana @ Santa Clara +14.4 143.1 91% 64–79 ✓
Southern @ Kent State +8.9 131.6 79% 78–76 ✗
Kansas State @ Nebraska -4.2 144.4 35% 67–58 ✓
San Francisco @ Arizona State -3.0 132.3 39% 66–65 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.