Everybody know I'm a motherfucking monster. "Monster" - Kanye West
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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44–16 on winners spread MAE 12.5 60 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Tennessee Tech @ Tennessee +28.3 117.7 99% 49–103 ✓
Iona @ Rider +5.2 143.9 68% 70–56 ✗
Davidson @ Rhode Island +7.6 139.8 76% 67–58 ✗
Northwestern State @ Tulsa +13.3 159.7 89% 55–82 ✓
Western Carolina @ Charleston -2.3 165.6 42% 76–70 ✓
Belmont @ Tennessee State -0.7 144.3 47% 88–63 ✓
Chicago State @ Northern Illinois +10.5 134.3 83% 54–64 ✓
Florida A&M @ Georgia Tech +14.6 154.4 91% 64–74 ✓
UT Martin @ Southeast Missouri State +4.1 175.9 65% 69–67 ✗
Iowa State @ West Virginia +24.0 140.3 99% 65–70 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Utah State +6.3 144.3 72% 50–63 ✓
Idaho @ Utah +9.2 142.9 80% 41–79 ✓
Montana State @ Washington State -3.9 136.3 36% 54–82 ✗
Air Force @ Nevada +13.0 125.4 88% 57–74 ✓
Weber State @ Portland State -4.0 139.0 36% 94–66 ✓
Butler @ Indiana +15.6 141.6 92% 60–68 ✓
Iowa @ Gonzaga -2.2 190.0 42% 88–99 ✗
Louisville @ Wisconsin +1.9 131.0 57% 48–85 ✓
Troy @ Auburn +10.8 131.1 84% 41–77 ✓
The Citadel @ Longwood +6.9 138.8 73% 91–89 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ Elon +6.5 127.5 72% 71–64 ✗
James Madison @ East Carolina +15.3 143.2 92% 64–73 ✓
Ball State @ Indiana State +7.0 144.6 74% 57–67 ✓
North Carolina @ Kentucky -8.2 126.6 23% 75–63 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Alabama +11.9 155.6 86% 73–71 ✗
Marist @ Manhattan -1.8 141.0 43% 61–39 ✓
Hofstra @ St. Bonaventure +8.6 145.4 78% 69–77 ✓
Drexel @ Fairleigh Dickinson -3.7 142.4 37% 85–68 ✓
Grambling @ Tulane +4.3 123.3 65% 65–77 ✓
High Point @ William & Mary +10.7 162.4 84% 71–49 ✗
Milwaukee @ Green Bay -9.7 159.0 19% 68–65 ✓
Youngstown State @ Northern Kentucky -3.9 147.9 36% 64–79 ✗
Wright State @ Detroit Mercy -0.6 132.1 48% 93–70 ✓
Valparaiso @ Toledo +10.7 143.9 84% 57–71 ✓
Stony Brook @ Binghamton +6.8 141.3 73% 73–59 ✗
Lamar @ Louisiana Tech +15.5 134.4 92% 57–86 ✓
Texas State @ Denver -4.5 132.0 34% 70–68 ✓
Notre Dame @ Purdue +9.6 145.3 81% 78–88 ✓
Ole Miss @ Dayton -6.4 120.2 28% 62–65 ✗
Portland @ Oregon +22.8 163.5 98% 41–80 ✓
Rice @ Sam Houston -4.7 143.1 34% 69–82 ✗
South Alabama @ Alabama A&M +14.0 154.4 90% 90–93 ✓
UL Monroe @ Southern Miss +3.2 125.7 61% 47–60 ✓
Chattanooga @ UAB +15.1 142.7 91% 69–66 ✗
Jacksonville @ Miami +10.5 133.5 83% 64–73 ✓
Baylor @ Kansas State -19.3 151.0 4% 100–69 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Charlotte +14.7 130.5 91% 72–76 ✓
Furman @ Winthrop +3.8 160.8 63% 71–87 ✓
Fairfield @ Niagara +14.4 116.4 90% 61–81 ✓
Campbell @ NC State +23.7 151.0 98% 50–69 ✓
Delaware @ La Salle +5.4 119.6 69% 61–71 ✓
Samford @ Kennesaw State -6.4 142.1 28% 65–63 ✓
UCLA @ Ohio State -0.6 147.8 48% 70–77 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ California +1.1 135.3 54% 56–87 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Monmouth -1.0 156.2 47% 78–76 ✓
Houston Christian @ Oklahoma +27.4 167.3 99% 65–84 ✓
Coppin State @ Virginia Tech +22.0 138.2 98% 57–97 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Pepperdine +5.1 164.7 68% 75–63 ✗
Buffalo @ Syracuse +14.9 144.6 91% 96–107 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Northern Arizona -18.9 143.1 4% 80–64 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.