← All models
Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
14–8 on winners
spread MAE 8.9
22 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kansas
@
Texas Tech
|
+13.3 | 134.1 | 89% | 58–57 | ✗ |
Creighton
@
St. John's
|
-2.2 | 175.8 | 42% | 94–76 | ✓ |
NC State
@
Saint Louis
|
+3.8 | 153.1 | 63% | 69–80 | ✓ |
San Francisco
@
Oregon
|
+6.7 | 152.0 | 73% | 64–74 | ✓ |
Houston Christian
@
North Texas
|
+20.5 | 145.1 | 97% | 55–85 | ✓ |
Jackson State
@
Bradley
|
+22.0 | 127.7 | 98% | 60–83 | ✓ |
UC Irvine
@
Loyola Marymount
|
+13.8 | 144.8 | 89% | 48–51 | ✓ |
Omaha
@
Wyoming
|
+14.6 | 151.1 | 91% | 78–82 | ✓ |
Utah Tech
@
Southern Utah
|
+12.4 | 153.6 | 87% | 78–85 | ✓ |
Seton Hall
@
Marquette
|
+2.1 | 142.7 | 58% | 70–63 | ✗ |
VMI
@
Gardner-Webb
|
+1.7 | 141.7 | 56% | 77–88 | ✓ |
Central Michigan
@
Western Michigan
|
-2.7 | 142.3 | 40% | 61–76 | ✗ |
North Dakota
@
Southern Illinois
|
+15.1 | 144.3 | 91% | 50–62 | ✓ |
Fairfield
@
Niagara
|
+13.9 | 114.5 | 90% | 51–68 | ✓ |
UNC Wilmington
@
Norfolk State
|
+0.2 | 143.1 | 51% | 80–72 | ✗ |
BYU
@
San Diego State
|
+11.1 | 125.5 | 84% | 72–62 | ✗ |
Hampton
@
Howard
|
-5.7 | 155.5 | 30% | 76–81 | ✗ |
Saint Peter's
@
Monmouth
|
-2.7 | 157.4 | 40% | 76–78 | ✗ |
Richmond
@
Loyola Chicago
|
-0.7 | 156.0 | 47% | 75–73 | ✓ |
Drake
@
South Dakota
|
-7.1 | 149.1 | 26% | 75–57 | ✓ |
South Carolina State
@
Presbyterian
|
+19.3 | 139.2 | 96% | 56–62 | ✓ |
SIU Edwardsville
@
Morehead State
|
+1.5 | 131.8 | 55% | 69–65 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.