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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
16–10 on winners
spread MAE 11.2
26 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Butler
@
Villanova
|
+22.5 | 140.1 | 98% | 66–85 | ✓ |
Ohio State
@
Purdue
|
+5.1 | 144.5 | 68% | 60–67 | ✓ |
South Florida
@
Cincinnati
|
+11.6 | 132.2 | 85% | 74–71 | ✗ |
Florida International
@
Florida Gulf Coast
|
+1.6 | 145.3 | 56% | 85–69 | ✗ |
Central Arkansas
@
Mississippi State
|
+7.3 | 157.1 | 75% | 65–81 | ✓ |
Grambling
@
UL Monroe
|
+8.9 | 128.7 | 79% | 78–61 | ✗ |
UNC Asheville
@
Chattanooga
|
+15.4 | 143.4 | 92% | 66–69 | ✓ |
TCU
@
Oklahoma State
|
+8.6 | 130.6 | 78% | 77–76 | ✗ |
Samford
@
Troy
|
-9.5 | 137.4 | 19% | 71–79 | ✗ |
Kennesaw State
@
Belmont
|
+18.9 | 140.7 | 96% | 53–64 | ✓ |
Southern
@
UAB
|
+21.9 | 144.6 | 98% | 46–88 | ✓ |
Sam Houston
@
Texas
|
+28.1 | 142.9 | 99% | 63–79 | ✓ |
Oral Roberts
@
Oklahoma
|
+15.0 | 175.6 | 91% | 65–79 | ✓ |
East Carolina
@
SMU
|
+11.9 | 151.2 | 86% | 55–70 | ✓ |
Ole Miss
@
Middle Tennessee
|
-9.3 | 119.9 | 20% | 70–51 | ✓ |
Tennessee Tech
@
Jacksonville State
|
+13.0 | 128.2 | 88% | 50–74 | ✓ |
Duke
@
Notre Dame
|
+7.0 | 147.8 | 74% | 75–65 | ✗ |
UTEP
@
Arizona State
|
+9.8 | 151.6 | 81% | 76–63 | ✗ |
Memphis
@
Tulane
|
-3.8 | 122.3 | 36% | 80–74 | ✓ |
Northern Colorado
@
Denver
|
+0.3 | 138.8 | 51% | 83–75 | ✗ |
Montana
@
Washington
|
+1.3 | 116.5 | 55% | 66–58 | ✗ |
North Dakota
@
Southern Illinois
|
+12.0 | 141.3 | 86% | 64–85 | ✓ |
Wagner
@
Bryant
|
+17.8 | 145.3 | 95% | 75–81 | ✓ |
Long Island University
@
Sacred Heart
|
-10.7 | 136.3 | 17% | 72–87 | ✗ |
Delaware State
@
Coastal Carolina
|
+24.0 | 162.9 | 99% | 73–99 | ✓ |
Saint Joseph's
@
Drexel
|
+11.4 | 153.8 | 85% | 77–81 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.