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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
25–13 on winners
spread MAE 10.9
38 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+12.5 | 123.0 | 87% | 38–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+20.5 | 160.2 | 97% | 65–92 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.7 | 125.5 | 66% | 60–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.8 | 148.4 | 67% | 63–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.8 | 138.9 | 73% | 69–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+15.7 | 141.2 | 92% | 63–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.2 | 121.2 | 88% | 63–52 | ✗ |
|
|
+30.7 | 136.2 | 100% | 52–82 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.6 | 130.4 | 34% | 69–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+22.1 | 157.0 | 98% | 57–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.9 | 156.0 | 96% | 68–93 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.9 | 157.2 | 91% | 67–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.4 | 146.9 | 62% | 63–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.9 | 140.4 | 86% | 52–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.6 | 138.9 | 92% | 58–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.2 | 139.3 | 74% | 63–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+27.4 | 139.3 | 99% | 56–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.3 | 120.2 | 80% | 66–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+14.1 | 129.7 | 90% | 46–51 | ✓ |
|
|
+21.5 | 151.7 | 97% | 59–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.5 | 163.1 | 87% | 61–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.7 | 145.7 | 70% | 76–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.6 | 149.3 | 73% | 80–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.3 | 138.5 | 82% | 74–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.3 | 131.3 | 83% | 75–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.0 | 133.9 | 68% | 85–66 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.4 | 171.9 | 45% | 59–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.3 | 142.3 | 72% | 78–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+26.7 | 153.3 | 99% | 56–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.9 | 148.8 | 60% | 56–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+25.2 | 148.9 | 99% | 62–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.2 | 148.2 | 90% | 61–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+25.8 | 129.8 | 99% | 49–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.1 | 134.9 | 64% | 70–55 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.0 | 156.4 | 57% | 75–58 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.7 | 169.0 | 63% | 81–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.9 | 143.3 | 88% | 96–87 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.9 | 146.4 | 53% | 70–61 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.