Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -23.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +25 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | UNT -30.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (-2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -23.1 (+1.9) | 136.8 (+0.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -19.7 (+5.3) | 139.3 (-2.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -28.0 (-3.0) | 137.7 (-0.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -25.7 (-0.7) | 138.2 (-1.2) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 5-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 1-4 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#63) | -16.8 (#315) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#225) | -1.64 (#263) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.52 (#226) | -3.35 (#292) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#181) | 0.451 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 34.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.6% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 39.3% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 58.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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