Betting Lines
| Spread | SLU -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Under |
| Money | SLU -1300 INST +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SLU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SLU +19 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | SLU -22.3 (-3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (-14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SLU -21.1 (-2.1) | 150.7 (-13.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SLU -24.5 (-5.5) | 150.8 (-13.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SLU -24.1 (-5.1) | 151.6 (-14.6) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SLU | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-7 | 15-10 |
| Conference | 6-4 | 11-7 |
| Home | 12-1 | 9-3 |
| Away | 1-4 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.4 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 17.5 (#6) | 1.0 (#136) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#57) | -0.75 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.24 (#68) | -1.01 (#200) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#76) | 0.416 (#244) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SLU | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.6% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 46.4% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 24.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.89 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.4% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 17.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 15.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 61.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.7% | 26.8% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 60.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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