Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | AUB -1400 TXSO +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +17 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -4.6 (+12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (-5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -3.8 (+13.2) | 148.8 (-5.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -4.3 (+12.7) | 144.2 (-1.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -4.3 (+12.7) | 147.3 (-4.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -4.3 (+12.7) | 148.3 (-5.3) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2022 | AUB 72 – 56 TXSO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-14 | 17-9 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 10-3 |
| Home | 8-5 | 8-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 69.8 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#180) | -0.1 (#155) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#75) | 1.16 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#70) | 1.08 (#111) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#90) | 0.639 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 41.4 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.2 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 44.0% |
| TOV% | 24.3% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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