Betting Lines
| Spread | COLO -22.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | COLO -5500 OMA +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLO +42 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | COLO -26.0 (+16.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.7 (+9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLO -20.4 (+21.6) | 132.2 (+7.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLO -19.7 (+22.3) | 131.9 (+8.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLO -26.1 (+15.9) | 134.7 (+5.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLO -25.3 (+16.7) | 132.9 (+7.1) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLO | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-9 | 5-20 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 3-11 |
| Home | 11-1 | 1-5 |
| Away | 6-6 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.8 | 78.0 |
| Massey | 12.1 (#23) | -8.0 (#275) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#87) | -0.40 (#191) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#94) | -0.91 (#194) |
| RPI | 0.649 (#33) | 0.496 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLO | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 38.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 26.5% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 41.8% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.5% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.6% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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