Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | VCU -1800 WCU +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +25 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -16.5 (+8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.0 (+3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -14.9 (+10.1) | 151.9 (+9.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -11.7 (+13.3) | 152.1 (+8.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -14.7 (+10.3) | 153.9 (+7.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -14.0 (+11.0) | 151.9 (+9.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-7 | 11-16 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 4-13 |
| Home | 12-2 | 6-5 |
| Away | 5-3 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 79.5 |
| Massey | 12.1 (#24) | 1.5 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#50) | 1.37 (#73) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.37 (#39) | 2.33 (#67) |
| RPI | 0.594 (#49) | 0.519 (#124) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.5% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.2% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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