Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | MIA +175 PITT -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +15 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | MIA -3.9 (-18.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.7 (-9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -3.2 (-18.2) | 136.1 (-11.1) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -1.6 (-16.6) | 137.0 (-12.0) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -2.4 (-17.4) | 139.3 (-14.3) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -2.2 (-17.2) | 135.6 (-10.6) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | MIA 76 – 69 PITT |
| Feb 15, 2025 | PITT 74 – 65 MIA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MIA 72 – 68 PITT |
| Mar 4, 2023 | MIA 78 – 76 PITT |
| Jan 28, 2023 | PITT 71 – 68 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-17 | 10-12 |
| Conference | 4-15 | 6-10 |
| Home | 7-8 | 7-6 |
| Away | 1-8 | 3-5 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.4 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#143) | 2.7 (#108) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.00 (#158) | -0.31 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#166) | -1.80 (#239) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#193) | 0.482 (#166) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 22.7% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 44.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 15.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 39.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.8% | 44.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 78.0% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.2% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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