Betting Lines
| Spread | RICH -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | VAN +250 RICH -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RICH +11 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | VAN -3.8 (-14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (+3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -5.2 (-16.2) | 140.6 (+4.4) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -4.9 (-15.9) | 141.4 (+3.6) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -3.1 (-14.1) | 145.6 (-0.6) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -3.4 (-14.4) | 142.1 (+2.9) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-16 | 14-9 |
| Conference | 3-13 | 6-5 |
| Home | 6-7 | 6-4 |
| Away | 2-8 | 5-3 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#103) | 5.1 (#86) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#117) | 1.66 (#56) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#130) | 2.91 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#191) | 0.567 (#70) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 50.0 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 40.5% | 20.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.1% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.1% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 81.4% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 4.8% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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