Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Under |
| Money | UNCG -2800 UPST +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +8 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -20.9 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.5 (-35.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -16.1 (-8.1) | 150.4 (-28.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -14.9 (-6.9) | 143.0 (-21.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -17.1 (-9.1) | 148.1 (-26.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -16.5 (-8.5) | 149.4 (-27.4) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-9 | 5-18 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 5-11 |
| Home | 7-3 | 3-8 |
| Away | 10-3 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 74.1 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#169) | -15.9 (#313) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#188) | -3.27 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#182) | -4.67 (#310) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#186) | 0.351 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 23.0% | 39.5% |
| REB / G | 43.6 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 16.8 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.1% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 59.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 80.2% | 60.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.1% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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