Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Under |
| Money | ETSU -230 GWEB +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +5 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -5.4 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.6 (-0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -4.8 (+0.2) | 132.1 (-7.1) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -4.1 (+0.9) | 136.7 (-11.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -7.2 (-2.2) | 134.8 (-9.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -5.4 (-0.4) | 131.9 (-6.9) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-12 | 11-15 |
| Conference | 8-7 | 10-10 |
| Home | 8-4 | 7-4 |
| Away | 3-5 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 68.4 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#185) | -1.3 (#177) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#216) | -1.24 (#237) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#154) | -2.78 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#200) | 0.451 (#210) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.7% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 24.5% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.53 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.0% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 25.8% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 19.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 13.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.3% | 43.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.5% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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