Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -13.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Over |
| Money | APSU -1000 FAMU +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAMU +6 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | APSU -5.7 (-11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (-0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -4.9 (-10.9) | 143.4 (+2.6) | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -4.9 (-10.9) | 141.8 (+4.2) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -4.8 (-10.8) | 142.6 (+3.4) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -5.1 (-11.1) | 144.0 (+2.0) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | FAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 0-4 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#241) | -4.6 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#132) | -0.77 (#212) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#143) | -0.87 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#158) | 0.469 (#183) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | FAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 27.0% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.54 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 25.1% | 24.0% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 15.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 58.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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