Betting Lines
| Spread | TA&M -21.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Under |
| Money | TA&M -4000 SELA +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TA&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TA&M +17 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | TA&M -12.1 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (-19.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TA&M -10.4 (+6.6) | 140.6 (-19.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TA&M -10.7 (+6.3) | 137.8 (-16.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TA&M -11.7 (+5.3) | 141.9 (-20.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TA&M -9.9 (+7.1) | 140.7 (-19.7) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TA&M | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-10 | 8-18 |
| Conference | 2-8 | 5-10 |
| Home | 6-4 | 3-4 |
| Away | 2-4 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.3 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.9 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#178) | -7.5 (#270) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#172) | -0.79 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#202) | -1.50 (#225) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#172) | 0.457 (#201) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TA&M | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 36.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 23.0% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 41.1% |
| TOV% | 26.3% | 23.5% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 40.9% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.0% | 23.5% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 64.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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