Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.0 Over |
| Money | ALA -265 FUR +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +3 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -5.7 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.0 (+14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -6.2 (-3.2) | 146.8 (+16.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -5.8 (-2.8) | 157.0 (+6.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -7.1 (-4.1) | 150.8 (+12.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -6.0 (-3.0) | 147.0 (+16.0) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-7 | 16-9 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 10-5 |
| Home | 12-1 | 11-1 |
| Away | 7-3 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.7 | 78.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#56) | 8.2 (#52) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#78) | 0.35 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.92 (#78) | 0.57 (#135) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#57) | 0.460 (#194) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 57.4% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 21.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 31.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 23.9% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.1% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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