Betting Lines
| Spread | LIB -26.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIB +30 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | LIB -32.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIB -23.4 (+6.6) | 136.6 (-2.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIB -21.7 (+8.3) | 135.3 (-1.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIB -29.5 (+0.5) | 132.4 (+1.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIB -28.4 (+1.6) | 137.7 (-3.7) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIB | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#79) | -19.9 (#319) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#150) | -3.73 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.00 (#157) | -5.31 (#317) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#78) | 0.325 (#304) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIB | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 34.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 26.7 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 5.7 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 40.3% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 19.1% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 10.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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