Betting Lines
| Spread | WIS -9.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | WIS -475 LUC +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIS +14 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | WIS -7.6 (+6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (+0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIS -8.1 (+5.9) | 137.6 (+2.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIS -4.7 (+9.3) | 135.8 (+4.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIS -9.3 (+4.7) | 138.6 (+1.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIS -9.0 (+5.0) | 137.4 (+2.6) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIS | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 26-5 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 16-2 |
| Home | 11-5 | 13-0 |
| Away | 5-6 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.6 | 56.4 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#42) | 7.9 (#58) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#91) | 2.24 (#33) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.22 (#69) | 3.43 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#121) | 0.557 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIS | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 55.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 42.1% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 1.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 62.8% |
| TOV% | 12.7% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 31.2% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.4% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 77.2% | 85.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 15.7% |
Game Analysis
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