Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Over |
| Money | ILL -500 MINN +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +27 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -19.3 (+7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.0 (-2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -13.2 (+13.8) | 157.2 (-0.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -14.3 (+12.7) | 155.7 (+1.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -13.5 (+13.5) | 158.2 (-1.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -12.7 (+14.3) | 155.6 (+1.4) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | ILL 77 – 67 MINN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | ILL 95 – 74 MINN |
| Feb 29, 2024 | ILL 105 – 97 MINN |
| Feb 21, 2023 | ILL 78 – 69 MINN |
| Jan 16, 2023 | ILL 78 – 60 MINN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-7 | 14-15 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 6-14 |
| Home | 11-2 | 13-4 |
| Away | 9-3 | 0-10 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 73.2 |
| Massey | 18.4 (#4) | 4.9 (#89) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.61 (#61) | 2.04 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.56 (#62) | 2.83 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#43) | 0.530 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.8% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 44.3% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 43.3 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.4% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 37.9% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 35.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 80.6% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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