Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | SMC -440 EWU +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +5 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -10.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.5 (+24.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -10.6 (-5.6) | 135.4 (+19.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -8.1 (-3.1) | 136.0 (+19.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -11.1 (-6.1) | 137.6 (+17.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -10.5 (-5.5) | 135.2 (+19.8) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | EWU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-10 | 16-8 |
| Conference | 4-6 | 12-3 |
| Home | 9-3 | 7-2 |
| Away | 2-3 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 78.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.6 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#78) | 1.9 (#120) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#93) | -0.69 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#121) | -0.66 (#185) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#142) | 0.510 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | EWU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 38.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 27.6% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 4.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 12.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 78.6% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.4% | 11.7% |
Game Analysis
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