I have got the sharpest knife, so I get the biggest slice. "Revolution Rock" - The Clash
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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39–20 on winners spread MAE 10.1 59 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Indiana State @ Southern Illinois -4.3 148.9 32% 69–74 ✗
Radford @ High Point +8.7 149.5 82% 74–99 ✓
Elon @ UNC Wilmington +15.9 147.6 89% 73–72 ✗
Western Michigan @ Central Michigan +4.1 135.6 71% 42–69 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Wofford +1.2 146.1 56% 58–47 ✗
Georgia State @ Old Dominion -1.3 143.6 48% 68–65 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Bellarmine -2.9 145.3 35% 75–65 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UC San Diego +10.5 137.6 87% 69–76 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Portland State +5.7 141.2 73% 68–83 ✓
Fresno State @ Boise State +12.9 140.3 88% 66–90 ✓
DePaul @ Providence +17.6 140.1 90% 70–81 ✓
UT Arlington @ UT Rio Grande Valley -6.8 148.8 23% 89–70 ✓
Liberty @ Sam Houston -1.7 136.7 44% 73–83 ✗
NC State @ Clemson +9.1 146.7 81% 78–77 ✗
California @ Washington +10.0 155.8 82% 82–80 ✗
Michigan State @ Michigan -6.0 141.9 28% 73–63 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Milwaukee +1.0 150.4 55% 72–73 ✓
Yale @ Princeton +5.4 138.8 69% 62–73 ✓
South Dakota State @ Omaha +0.5 148.6 51% 85–77 ✗
South Dakota @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +10.9 145.8 87% 80–83 ✓
North Dakota @ Oral Roberts +1.6 149.4 60% 78–65 ✗
California Baptist @ Grand Canyon +14.6 139.0 88% 76–79 ✓
Long Beach State @ Cal State Northridge +1.0 155.9 55% 87–73 ✗
Austin Peay @ North Alabama +2.4 144.4 63% 87–79 ✗
Missouri @ Ole Miss +9.8 144.9 83% 76–79 ✓
Utah Valley @ Southern Utah -0.3 141.2 50% 78–75 ✓
San Francisco @ Loyola Marymount -5.9 142.8 25% 82–59 ✓
Pacific @ Gonzaga +22.9 150.4 91% 76–102 ✓
Seattle U @ Utah Tech -4.7 144.2 33% 66–65 ✓
Montana State @ Montana +6.9 146.6 78% 69–88 ✓
Arizona State @ Arizona +18.0 155.7 90% 60–105 ✓
Colorado @ USC -1.5 149.3 43% 92–89 ✓
Oregon @ Oregon State -4.8 140.4 33% 60–58 ✓
Wyoming @ San José State +0.4 142.2 52% 80–75 ✗
Santa Clara @ San Diego -2.6 150.0 39% 82–69 ✓
Portland @ Pepperdine +6.0 149.6 76% 70–91 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Irvine +13.5 138.5 88% 71–77 ✓
Nevada @ UNLV -0.6 140.8 50% 69–66 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ South Florida -1.9 144.8 42% 86–90 ✗
Wichita State @ Charlotte +7.9 134.0 79% 61–72 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Rhode Island -1.5 145.1 42% 77–67 ✓
Purdue @ Ohio State -7.6 147.0 20% 69–73 ✗
Saint Peter's @ Iona +4.8 132.4 71% 59–53 ✗
UTSA @ Temple +4.7 153.9 69% 77–83 ✓
Tulane @ East Carolina -0.6 146.7 51% 67–81 ✗
Bradley @ Northern Iowa -1.8 143.1 42% 63–74 ✗
Murray State @ Drake +10.8 141.4 84% 72–95 ✓
Belmont @ UIC +1.2 146.4 53% 75–60 ✗
Rider @ Manhattan -2.9 142.9 38% 104–62 ✓
Niagara @ Quinnipiac +6.2 150.1 77% 80–66 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Fairfield +5.0 145.2 70% 80–94 ✓
Canisius @ Siena -7.0 134.6 27% 73–64 ✓
Chattanooga @ Furman +1.3 153.3 55% 65–82 ✓
North Texas @ UAB +1.6 133.7 59% 62–71 ✓
Evansville @ Illinois State +1.6 131.5 59% 79–86 ✓
Northwestern @ Indiana +0.5 143.9 52% 76–72 ✗
Memphis @ SMU +7.1 149.9 75% 79–106 ✓
Seton Hall @ St. John's +5.3 142.6 70% 68–62 ✗
Rutgers @ Minnesota +3.8 132.6 66% 70–81 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.