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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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46–7 on winners spread MAE 7.6 53 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Butler @ Xavier +11.7 144.4 87% 66–78 ✓
Binghamton @ UMBC +5.4 145.8 71% 67–65 ✗
NJIT @ Vermont +15.1 142.3 89% 57–84 ✓
North Dakota @ Oral Roberts +13.1 151.5 87% 80–96 ✓
Chicago State @ Fresno State +9.1 130.7 80% 72–108 ✓
Jackson State @ Mississippi Valley State -2.6 137.1 37% 68–60 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Louisiana Tech -8.2 145.4 22% 76–72 ✓
Iona @ Rider -5.3 144.8 29% 80–78 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Marist -2.9 141.4 39% 88–76 ✓
UConn @ Villanova -3.9 139.4 34% 71–59 ✓
Idaho @ Northern Arizona +3.1 143.0 62% 76–87 ✓
Yale @ Brown -5.4 141.8 30% 84–75 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Tennessee Tech -1.2 153.3 45% 89–82 ✓
Saint Francis @ Fairleigh Dickinson +4.9 157.2 70% 50–70 ✓
California @ Oregon State +5.3 123.5 68% 66–69 ✓
Notre Dame @ Clemson +12.8 144.4 86% 64–87 ✓
Davidson @ Rhode Island -1.1 139.2 42% 68–54 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Louisiana +5.7 143.4 73% 49–67 ✓
Wofford @ UNC Greensboro +6.4 142.8 74% 67–66 ✗
Northeastern @ Delaware +4.5 137.3 69% 74–77 ✓
Mississippi State @ Vanderbilt +0.9 133.2 54% 72–77 ✓
Creighton @ DePaul -10.9 150.9 17% 84–70 ✓
Boise State @ Utah State +4.0 143.8 70% 73–86 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Irvine +12.3 137.9 87% 44–52 ✓
Hawai'i @ UC Santa Barbara +2.7 133.1 63% 61–81 ✓
Omaha @ South Dakota State +8.7 142.0 81% 55–63 ✓
Arizona @ UCLA +6.8 149.0 76% 73–82 ✓
Wyoming @ San Diego State +13.6 137.4 88% 50–67 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Portland State -0.5 156.3 47% 84–80 ✓
BYU @ Loyola Marymount -2.1 147.3 41% 73–63 ✓
UC Riverside @ Cal Poly -6.5 131.3 24% 73–72 ✓
Arizona State @ USC +6.8 144.9 76% 65–68 ✓
San Francisco @ Santa Clara +3.7 151.7 66% 93–87 ✗
Houston @ Memphis -3.9 142.6 32% 67–65 ✓
Maryland @ Penn State +1.8 138.3 59% 64–65 ✓
William & Mary @ Hofstra +12.0 136.4 85% 46–94 ✓
Illinois @ Purdue +6.7 137.9 75% 71–76 ✓
Campbell @ UNC Asheville +4.2 140.3 70% 73–77 ✓
Army @ Colgate +11.7 153.9 86% 74–91 ✓
Drake @ Bradley -0.3 132.2 48% 77–51 ✓
South Florida @ Wichita State +4.7 146.5 72% 49–69 ✓
Temple @ Tulane +5.1 153.5 71% 82–83 ✓
East Carolina @ UCF +11.6 136.2 86% 58–84 ✓
SMU @ Cincinnati +12.1 150.4 88% 74–97 ✓
Nebraska @ Iowa +9.7 154.4 81% 81–77 ✗
Drexel @ UNC Wilmington +1.0 128.8 56% 68–73 ✓
Liberty @ Kennesaw State -1.6 140.4 41% 66–67 ✗
Western Carolina @ Furman +8.0 147.3 80% 80–83 ✓
American University @ Lafayette +1.5 123.5 56% 76–84 ✓
Michigan @ Indiana +5.8 147.4 71% 73–75 ✓
McNeese @ East Texas A&M +2.5 142.9 61% 79–78 ✗
South Alabama @ James Madison +1.6 142.1 56% 75–66 ✗
Stony Brook @ Charleston +16.5 143.7 88% 52–74 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.