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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
8–4 on winners
spread MAE 9.4
12 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Thomas
@
Western Illinois
|
-2.8 | 146.0 | 38% | 67–60 | ✓ |
Chattanooga
@
Wofford
|
-1.3 | 150.5 | 44% | 74–62 | ✓ |
Northern Arizona
@
Eastern Washington
|
+5.9 | 149.0 | 74% | 81–80 | ✗ |
Northwestern
@
Rutgers
|
+4.2 | 123.1 | 65% | 65–53 | ✗ |
Wisconsin
@
Minnesota
|
-6.4 | 131.6 | 22% | 71–67 | ✓ |
LSU New Orleans
@
Houston Christian
|
-1.2 | 157.2 | 45% | 90–69 | ✓ |
Texas State
@
Louisiana
|
+5.9 | 140.3 | 74% | 58–64 | ✓ |
Delaware
@
Towson
|
+4.1 | 141.2 | 66% | 60–86 | ✓ |
South Dakota
@
North Dakota State
|
+4.5 | 141.2 | 68% | 68–70 | ✓ |
Northern Colorado
@
Montana State
|
+6.8 | 144.8 | 76% | 73–84 | ✓ |
McNeese
@
Nicholls
|
+5.6 | 142.4 | 73% | 77–71 | ✗ |
UNC Wilmington
@
Hofstra
|
+6.4 | 134.0 | 73% | 79–73 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.