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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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17–5 on winners spread MAE 7.1 22 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
South Alabama @ Louisiana	+0.8	139.6	56%	66–71	✓
St. Thomas @ Oral Roberts	+8.8	149.9	80%	65–70	✓
Chattanooga @ Furman	+6.0	153.3	74%	79–88	✓
Northern Kentucky @ Youngstown State	+3.4	139.6	63%	75–63	✗
Idaho State @ Montana	+5.6	135.1	73%	74–83	✓
BYU @ Saint Mary's	+7.1	131.5	77%	69–76	✓
LSU New Orleans @ SE Louisiana	+6.2	155.7	76%	82–78	✗
Towson @ Charleston	+6.2	146.3	75%	72–77	✓
North Dakota State @ South Dakota State	+2.8	137.5	63%	89–79	✗
Cleveland State @ Milwaukee	-1.8	145.1	40%	93–80	✓
Sacramento State @ Weber State	+1.4	130.2	56%	64–70	✓
San Francisco @ Gonzaga	+10.7	162.6	83%	73–84	✓
Massachusetts @ Richmond	-0.0	136.8	50%	38–71	✗
Loyola Chicago @ Saint Joseph's	+2.7	142.6	60%	67–72	✓
Georgia Tech @ Florida State	-3.7	143.7	34%	61–60	✓
Abilene Christian @ California Baptist	+1.8	137.5	58%	62–69	✓
Rhode Island @ La Salle	+0.3	139.8	52%	56–73	✓
Louisville @ Boston College	+6.0	135.2	74%	62–80	✓
UT Arlington @ Grand Canyon	+7.0	137.4	77%	77–82	✓
Canisius @ Mount St. Mary's	-1.1	135.1	45%	66–67	✗
New Hampshire @ UMass Lowell	+12.4	138.8	87%	64–75	✓
McNeese @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+8.8	147.2	81%	63–80	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.