I had 'em all out there steppin' and fetchin' like their heads were on fire and their asses was catchin'. "The Ballad of Uneasy Rider" - Charlie Daniels
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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49–14 on winners spread MAE 7.8 63 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Duke @ Virginia -5.4 131.0 28% 65–61 ✓
Xavier @ Providence +3.8 142.8 66% 92–99 ✓
TCU @ Texas +6.7 130.6 74% 66–75 ✓
James Madison @ Towson +12.2 140.0 87% 65–84 ✓
George Mason @ VCU +7.4 132.4 79% 66–72 ✓
UL Monroe @ Georgia State +8.1 140.2 79% 70–82 ✓
Lafayette @ Boston University +9.0 144.7 83% 60–76 ✓
Colgate @ Holy Cross -10.7 139.4 15% 78–71 ✓
South Florida @ East Carolina +5.3 130.6 71% 60–64 ✓
American University @ Lehigh +4.2 137.8 66% 61–78 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Navy +7.1 128.3 75% 50–52 ✓
Radford @ Longwood +10.2 136.4 84% 66–71 ✓
High Point @ North Carolina A&T +2.3 137.0 58% 78–58 ✗
UNC Asheville @ Gardner-Webb +5.2 138.3 70% 59–60 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Presbyterian +9.9 135.3 85% 48–68 ✓
Campbell @ Hampton -3.9 130.6 29% 66–68 ✗
Boston College @ NC State +4.9 144.0 70% 69–61 ✗
Syracuse @ Notre Dame +4.8 148.4 70% 69–79 ✓
Wake Forest @ Clemson -1.2 147.5 41% 69–80 ✗
Vermont @ Binghamton -11.9 138.4 15% 66–49 ✓
Stony Brook @ UMass Lowell +1.7 148.8 58% 50–67 ✓
New Hampshire @ NJIT -1.9 129.2 45% 83–55 ✓
UMBC @ Hartford +1.0 147.7 56% 92–85 ✗
UAlbany @ Maine -6.0 130.7 23% 72–68 ✓
Central Arkansas @ North Alabama +3.6 146.4 64% 81–72 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ Liberty +8.6 150.7 80% 82–72 ✗
Stetson @ Kennesaw State +6.7 142.5 76% 71–75 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Jacksonville State +9.6 148.2 81% 68–81 ✓
North Florida @ Jacksonville +6.5 129.9 74% 39–71 ✓
Lipscomb @ Bellarmine +7.1 147.7 74% 73–76 ✓
West Virginia @ Iowa State +5.6 130.6 71% 81–84 ✓
UT Arlington @ Troy +4.9 136.5 70% 53–59 ✓
Louisiana @ Georgia Southern +0.3 136.6 50% 82–69 ✗
Drake @ Valparaiso -3.8 142.6 33% 71–65 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Indiana State -3.9 145.9 30% 88–82 ✓
La Salle @ Fordham +5.4 137.9 73% 54–60 ✓
Massachusetts @ Dayton +12.5 144.0 87% 61–82 ✓
Davidson @ Duquesne -11.3 139.6 15% 74–50 ✓
Wofford @ VMI +1.2 147.5 56% 83–72 ✗
Western Carolina @ UNC Greensboro +9.2 134.2 82% 64–73 ✓
Chattanooga @ East Tennessee State -3.1 137.7 34% 83–77 ✓
The Citadel @ Mercer +5.6 150.4 72% 71–67 ✗
Rutgers @ Michigan +5.5 137.2 71% 62–71 ✓
App State @ Little Rock -7.7 134.3 23% 78–66 ✓
Houston @ Tulane -7.8 144.2 20% 81–67 ✓
Illinois State @ Southern Illinois +5.4 133.1 72% 69–90 ✓
Tulsa @ SMU +11.1 143.5 86% 61–75 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Chicago State -13.9 134.8 13% 85–64 ✓
Texas State @ South Alabama +3.6 136.3 64% 55–52 ✗
Coastal Carolina @ Arkansas State +1.4 136.2 59% 74–69 ✗
Bradley @ Missouri State +5.2 140.6 71% 67–83 ✓
Evansville @ Loyola Chicago +19.6 133.3 91% 31–82 ✓
Furman @ Samford -3.3 150.8 38% 75–83 ✗
Ole Miss @ Auburn +14.0 148.5 88% 64–77 ✓
Butler @ Seton Hall +10.9 134.8 86% 60–66 ✓
LSU @ Kentucky +7.3 145.8 77% 66–71 ✓
Wisconsin @ Minnesota -2.7 135.1 36% 68–67 ✓
Cincinnati @ UCF +2.4 141.7 61% 61–75 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech -5.8 134.5 27% 62–58 ✓
Wyoming @ Colorado State +3.8 144.7 69% 55–61 ✓
Washington @ Washington State +9.6 137.3 85% 70–78 ✓
Wagner @ Fairleigh Dickinson -14.3 146.9 13% 86–88 ✗
William & Mary @ Northeastern +8.2 134.9 77% 28–62 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.