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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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25–4 on winners spread MAE 7.9 29 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Tennessee @ Missouri	-11.4	133.5	15%	80–61	✓
Arkansas @ Florida	+0.5	136.9	49%	82–74	✗
Michigan State @ Iowa	+6.0	155.7	74%	60–86	✓
Charleston @ Northeastern	-1.7	143.8	42%	83–72	✓
Siena @ Monmouth	+8.2	135.8	80%	59–71	✓
Rhode Island @ St. Bonaventure	+8.1	137.0	81%	55–73	✓
Richmond @ George Washington	-3.4	142.0	34%	84–71	✓
Northern Illinois @ Eastern Michigan	+2.2	142.3	62%	72–74	✓
Ball State @ Kent State	+10.7	144.6	84%	82–93	✓
Bowling Green @ Akron	+7.9	147.5	79%	68–82	✓
Buffalo @ Miami (OH)	-5.9	158.7	27%	86–84	✓
Toledo @ Western Michigan	-13.6	146.0	14%	92–50	✓
Central Michigan @ Ohio	+14.7	144.9	89%	50–76	✓
Georgia @ Texas A&M	+11.3	144.8	87%	77–91	✓
Villanova @ UConn	+2.2	139.5	58%	69–71	✓
Oklahoma @ Texas Tech	+9.2	134.7	81%	42–66	✓
Miami @ Pittsburgh	-4.3	136.5	32%	85–64	✓
Saint Joseph's @ Saint Louis	+10.9	146.1	86%	61–72	✓
Nebraska @ Northwestern	+11.9	151.7	88%	65–77	✓
Kansas State @ Kansas	+12.0	149.4	87%	83–102	✓
Alabama @ Vanderbilt	-1.2	150.2	45%	74–72	✓
Fresno State @ Air Force	-7.4	123.8	21%	65–40	✓
San Diego State @ Boise State	+3.0	124.2	62%	57–58	✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal Poly	-0.3	131.8	47%	61–60	✓
New Mexico @ Utah State	+11.0	155.1	84%	56–81	✓
UNLV @ Nevada	+0.2	145.6	54%	62–54	✗
Bucknell @ Army	+6.3	151.5	72%	60–73	✓
Creighton @ St. John's	+4.8	147.4	67%	81–78	✗
Mississippi State @ South Carolina	-0.1	140.2	51%	56–66	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.