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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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24–7 on winners spread MAE 9.0 31 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Indiana @ Ohio State	+6.9	136.1	76%	69–80	✓
Liberty @ Central Arkansas	-8.7	152.0	17%	85–66	✓
Holy Cross @ Lafayette	+4.0	137.0	65%	61–84	✓
UTEP @ Middle Tennessee	+7.4	140.0	78%	59–77	✓
Georgia Tech @ Syracuse	+10.9	147.5	83%	73–74	✓
Florida State @ Boston College	-1.0	140.4	41%	55–71	✗
Coppin State @ Howard	+9.6	148.9	83%	86–82	✗
Louisville @ North Carolina	+9.6	150.1	83%	63–70	✓
Penn State @ Maryland	+1.9	133.1	60%	61–67	✓
Norfolk State @ Morgan State	-7.9	144.9	22%	74–85	✗
Alabama A&M @ Florida A&M	+3.9	130.1	64%	71–63	✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ North Carolina Central	+4.1	136.8	65%	79–66	✗
Delaware State @ South Carolina State	+10.6	136.4	86%	74–79	✓
West Virginia @ TCU	+3.9	132.3	67%	67–77	✓
Marshall @ Southern Miss	-4.2	153.6	31%	74–60	✓
The Citadel @ Samford	+5.6	157.9	74%	74–76	✓
Eastern Illinois @ SIU Edwardsville	+10.8	129.4	85%	52–66	✓
Idaho State @ Northern Colorado	+11.1	146.8	87%	70–77	✓
Indiana State @ Drake	+11.2	143.3	87%	58–74	✓
Loyola Chicago @ Illinois State	-7.5	145.8	21%	59–50	✓
Southern Utah @ Northern Arizona	-5.2	147.8	29%	79–48	✓
Evansville @ Valparaiso	+9.3	133.5	82%	69–74	✓
Texas Southern @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff	-10.9	136.0	16%	70–68	✓
Prairie View A&M @ Mississippi Valley State	-7.2	153.7	22%	69–64	✓
Baylor @ Oklahoma State	-3.7	143.8	32%	66–64	✓
Arizona State @ UCLA	+13.0	141.4	88%	52–66	✓
Alabama State @ Bethune-Cookman	+1.1	136.9	52%	89–78	✗
San Francisco @ Pacific	-14.7	137.5	14%	104–71	✓
New Mexico State @ Seattle U	+1.5	143.1	56%	68–55	✗
St. Thomas @ North Dakota	-1.2	149.4	41%	84–74	✓
Yale @ Dartmouth	-2.4	134.7	37%	66–61	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.