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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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41–18 on winners spread MAE 9.3 59 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Creighton @ UConn +15.7 145.3 89% 91–84 ✗
Arkansas @ Alabama +3.6 179.2 66% 115–117 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Indiana State -5.8 136.3 21% 81–60 ✓
Bradley @ Valparaiso -0.5 143.6 43% 72–79 ✗
American University @ Bucknell -2.6 142.8 37% 75–57 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ St. Bonaventure +3.9 141.2 70% 71–65 ✗
Loyola Chicago @ Fordham +9.7 132.9 85% 59–62 ✓
La Salle @ Duquesne +9.8 140.8 84% 61–62 ✓
Dayton @ George Mason +3.8 135.0 65% 82–67 ✗
Richmond @ Davidson +5.1 142.2 73% 63–65 ✓
Wichita State @ East Carolina -8.3 143.4 19% 92–89 ✓
UAB @ Temple +0.0 143.1 48% 76–71 ✗
Clemson @ Wake Forest -1.6 138.0 50% 77–85 ✗
Army @ Loyola Maryland +4.4 145.9 72% 87–77 ✗
Lehigh @ Navy +10.7 142.9 85% 49–72 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Northern Kentucky +4.4 150.4 72% 71–87 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Western Carolina +3.9 154.7 66% 77–91 ✓
James Madison @ Coastal Carolina +1.6 139.6 59% 67–65 ✗
Ole Miss @ Texas A&M +10.7 152.5 82% 77–80 ✓
Oklahoma @ Tennessee +11.8 148.6 87% 66–89 ✓
West Georgia @ Eastern Kentucky +3.9 152.3 66% 80–81 ✓
Jacksonville @ Florida Gulf Coast +5.3 141.1 75% 84–86 ✓
Queens University @ North Alabama -6.9 155.1 25% 85–78 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Delaware -2.5 139.0 36% 88–87 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Drake -1.3 144.5 45% 66–61 ✓
Troy @ UL Monroe -12.0 154.0 15% 77–76 ✓
Lipscomb @ Bellarmine -2.1 155.1 42% 75–72 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Sam Houston +6.3 149.4 74% 70–78 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Louisiana Tech +0.5 130.1 47% 71–77 ✓
North Carolina Central @ South Carolina State -2.4 131.7 32% 72–85 ✗
UIC @ Evansville -8.4 139.6 23% 84–46 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ UTSA -12.3 151.3 16% 60–52 ✓
Charlotte @ Tulsa +11.8 151.5 86% 74–79 ✓
Maryland @ Northwestern +8.1 139.4 79% 74–78 ✓
DePaul @ Seton Hall +8.8 128.8 74% 69–57 ✗
Oral Roberts @ Omaha +8.0 147.8 83% 71–80 ✓
North Dakota State @ South Dakota State -0.9 148.0 43% 74–66 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Missouri State +0.5 150.2 55% 91–87 ✗
Utah @ West Virginia +8.8 133.2 78% 61–56 ✗
BYU @ Arizona +11.9 164.8 83% 68–75 ✓
Kansas @ Oklahoma State -5.3 150.2 30% 81–69 ✓
Virginia @ Georgia Tech -14.1 145.3 13% 94–68 ✓
St. John's @ Marquette -7.7 150.4 24% 76–70 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Missouri -5.3 153.3 35% 80–81 ✗
Murray State @ Illinois State +4.5 151.0 69% 61–78 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Seattle U -6.8 131.5 20% 72–70 ✓
Auburn @ Mississippi State -2.9 154.5 34% 85–91 ✗
Pacific @ Washington State +0.7 143.4 57% 70–87 ✓
Illinois @ USC -6.5 151.0 26% 101–65 ✓
Pepperdine @ Portland +6.4 144.1 79% 95–87 ✗
Boise State @ Utah State +10.0 153.6 84% 56–75 ✓
Gonzaga @ San Francisco -12.1 150.2 14% 80–59 ✓
Colorado State @ UNLV +0.1 146.0 51% 91–86 ✗
Vermont @ UMBC +1.0 141.3 52% 62–75 ✓
New Hampshire @ UMass Lowell +2.9 145.7 69% 56–78 ✓
Binghamton @ Bryant +5.6 136.2 74% 79–67 ✗
Florida International @ Liberty +11.0 149.8 85% 89–90 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Winthrop +11.8 152.3 87% 64–68 ✓
Marshall @ App State +2.2 136.9 59% 94–93 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.