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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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38–16 on winners spread MAE 10.8 54 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Bucknell @ Illinois State +9.0 156.0 74% 100–105 ✓
Western Carolina @ American University +0.8 146.7 51% 80–79 ✗
Tulsa @ Rhode Island +7.0 134.4 75% 77–71 ✗
UAlbany @ Eastern Kentucky +11.5 140.4 81% 64–77 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Alabama State +3.8 143.8 63% 74–80 ✓
Western Illinois @ DePaul +15.2 155.4 82% 80–84 ✓
Winthrop @ Vanderbilt +11.3 147.8 82% 63–77 ✓
Morgan State @ Portland +9.2 149.3 82% 63–74 ✓
Fairfield @ Sacred Heart -1.9 149.3 42% 71–61 ✓
Iona @ North Alabama -5.4 131.6 28% 81–65 ✓
Pepperdine @ UC Irvine +11.7 132.9 84% 48–82 ✓
Omaha @ Montana +2.1 142.9 53% 47–68 ✓
UC San Diego @ Sacramento State -4.1 140.4 42% 71–56 ✓
UT Arlington @ San Diego State +18.1 130.3 89% 62–68 ✓
Texas State @ Eastern Washington -2.3 146.6 40% 81–74 ✓
Temple @ Elon -2.6 136.2 35% 75–58 ✓
Green Bay @ Weber State +11.1 137.3 77% 58–68 ✓
Bryant @ Holy Cross -0.4 147.5 45% 78–62 ✓
Norfolk State @ Xavier +5.7 144.0 73% 48–88 ✓
Boston University @ Northern Illinois -6.1 124.9 29% 76–58 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Old Dominion -2.1 137.3 40% 71–63 ✓
Villanova @ Purdue -0.3 153.4 49% 74–80 ✗
Boise State @ Ole Miss -0.4 138.5 53% 60–50 ✓
St. Thomas @ SIU Edwardsville -2.3 144.7 41% 86–73 ✓
Georgia State @ High Point +0.2 149.2 52% 74–66 ✗
UT Martin @ North Dakota -0.7 147.0 44% 77–72 ✓
Ball State @ Massachusetts +3.3 156.3 57% 89–86 ✗
Air Force @ Bethune-Cookman -6.6 130.1 25% 73–65 ✓
Little Rock @ Sam Houston -6.9 136.1 25% 59–77 ✗
Utah State @ Oklahoma +2.3 148.1 63% 73–70 ✗
Tennessee State @ South Dakota +5.6 137.8 54% 66–83 ✓
Princeton @ Oregon State -1.7 138.6 46% 81–80 ✓
Navy @ Furman +13.2 144.9 80% 77–66 ✗
Alabama A&M @ UAB +18.4 154.1 88% 41–86 ✓
Morehead State @ Mississippi State +24.2 139.4 90% 46–66 ✓
Lamar @ Southern Miss -0.7 140.6 30% 75–82 ✗
Tennessee @ North Carolina -1.8 156.5 43% 89–72 ✓
Niagara @ Youngstown State +4.7 143.2 70% 58–53 ✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ UTSA +1.3 142.2 55% 77–58 ✗
Western Carolina @ Longwood +21.8 152.9 87% 64–53 ✗
Jackson State @ Marshall +4.8 145.8 70% 66–80 ✓
Southern @ Nebraska +4.3 145.6 68% 59–82 ✓
Merrimack @ Virginia Tech +20.1 126.1 86% 43–72 ✓
Houston Christian @ Denver +13.0 133.6 89% 61–74 ✓
Howard @ William & Mary -10.8 145.5 23% 82–76 ✓
Clemson @ West Virginia -1.2 138.3 43% 59–66 ✗
Boston College @ Rhode Island -1.7 131.0 45% 65–71 ✗
Georgia Southern @ Wofford +3.6 139.2 64% 52–70 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Florida International +2.1 124.9 54% 71–74 ✓
Florida State @ Loyola Marymount -2.9 142.9 35% 73–45 ✓
Colorado State @ Creighton +0.2 143.4 51% 95–81 ✗
Davidson @ East Carolina +0.1 143.2 50% 76–67 ✗
Grambling @ Iowa State +13.9 136.2 85% 47–82 ✓
Texas Southern @ NC State +9.8 143.3 82% 57–65 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.